2024 NFL MVP Odds: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes Favored Entering Week 4

In the last six years, three players have won NFL MVP: Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson (2019 and ’23), Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes (’18 and ’22) and Jets QB Aaron Rodgers (who won the award as a Packer in 2020 and 2021).

So far, 2024 looks like it could be Josh Allen’s year to take home one of the few honors that have eluded him since he entered the league in 2018.

The 13 players below all currently boast MVP odds of +4000 (40-to-1) or shorter at most sportsbooks.

2024 NFL MVP Odds

2024 NFL MVP: Josh Allen’s Award to Lose?

Allen and the Bills struggled for the first 10 games of the 2023 season, going just 5-5 under OC Ken Dorsey. He caught fire as both a runner and a passer in November following Buffalo’s change at offensive coordinator, though.

After head coach Sean McDermott handed the reins of the offense to Joe Brady, Allen played at an MVP level the rest of the way.

With 19 total TDs (10 passing and nine rushing) and just seven interceptions in Buffalo’s final seven regular-season games, Allen went from an afterthought in the MVP conversation (on a team that looked likely to miss the playoffs) to a fifth-place finish in the final vote, and the Bills ended up winning the AFC East at 11-6.

Entering this season, it was hard to deny that if Allen could come even close to replicating that form for all of 2024, this award would be his.

But that was a big if, as Buffalo had to replace its top two receivers, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, over the last couple years. Diggs and Davis finished first and third on the team in targets in 2023, and they were far and away Allen’s No. 1 and No. 2 options back in in 2022.

So far this year, however, even with second-year TE Dalton Kincaid yet to get going, Allen and the Bills offense haven’t missed a beat. As a passer, Allen has been unstoppable, completing 75 percent of his passes for 634 yards, 7 TDs and 0 interceptions. He’s also added two more scores on the ground while averaging 5 yards per carry on 17 rushes.

Six players have caught at least one TD, and Allen (2 rushing TDs) has combined with James Cook (3 rushing TDs) to make Buffalo the highest-scoring team in the league through three weeks.

Allen and the Bills’ first three opponents — Arizona, Miami and Jacksonville — are a combined 2-7, and the competition is about to heat up. Buffalo will play Baltimore, Houston and New York, all on the road, in Weeks 4-6.

Still, now is a great time to invest in Allen, who is well on his way to having odds shorter than even money by mid-October.

NFL MVP Betting Analysis: Best Value Bets

Right now, oddsmakers give Mahomes just slightly longer odds than Allen, but the Chiefs’ star has hardly posted MVP-level statistics.

Patrick Mahomes Yet to Play at MVP Level

In fact, Mahomes has been mediocre by several measures so far, though he has done enough to get Kansas City to 3-0 despite a couple tough early-season matchups.

Regardless of the opposition, though. Mahomes’ stats through three games leave a lot to be desired. His completion percentage (69.6) has been excellent, but he’s thrown for just 219.7 yards per game on average of just over 30 attempts per game. The biggest cause for concern with Mahomes is his TD-to-interception ratio, which is 5-to-4. He threw for two TDs and an interception in his team’s Week 3 win over Atlanta, but he had as many picks as touchdowns against both Cincinnati in Week 2 and Baltimore in Week 1.

Mahomes might stay in this race for a while if Kansas City keeps winning, but based on his play in September, he doesn’t offer any value, especially not at as short as +250 at FanDuel, where he has the same odds as Allen.

If Allen isn’t worth a play, then which of the dozen or so other contenders with odds anywhere from 10-to-1 to 40-to-1 entering Week 4 should be targeted? Starting with the highest upside option, below are three value candidates worth considering right now.

Matthew Stafford — best MVP odds as of 9/24: +5000 at BetMGM

There are plenty of holes you could poke in the case for Stafford, including the mounting injuries his team is dealing with, as well as the fact that the Rams are just 1-2. But due to brutal injury luck, no quarterback in the league has done more with less so far this year.

Stafford nearly led the Rams to an upset of Detroit in Week 1 despite having no time to throw in that game. He’s also coming off a win over the Rams in which he helped L.A. pull off a remarkable comeback without his top two receivers and while starting two backups on the offensive line.

If the Rams — whose next seven opponents include the very beatable (to put it nicely) Bears, Raiders, Dolphins and Patriots — can find a way into the playoffs with an injury-ravaged receiving corps, a makeshift O-line and a young defense, Stafford will have a compelling MVP case in his 16th season in the league.

Sam Darnold — best MVP odds as of 9/24: +3000 at DK

Statistically, Darnold’s case isn’t the least bit farfetched.

The seventh-year former Jet, Panther and 49er has posted excellent numbers for a team that entered this season with a win total over-under set at 6.5 at most sportsbooks. Darnold is currently the league leader in TD passes with eight, and he’s fifth in the NFL in yards per attempt (8.4), while also boasting the second-highest passer rating (117.3), behind only Josh Allen.

He’s been outstanding with RB Aaron Jones as his second-leading receiver, so his stats should only improve once star TE T.J. Hockenson and second-year WR Jordan Addison return to the field.

The next several weeks will be challenging — this team’s next four opponents are the Packers, Jets, Lions and Rams — but now is the time to start buying any and all available stock in a QB that just beat San Francisco and Houston.

Darnold and the 3-0 Vikes, who DraftKings currently lists at +195 to win the NFC North and +1200 to win the NFC, are A) an ascending team that no one wants to face right now and B) awfully tempting in both their division and conference winner markets.

Aaron Rodgers — best MVP odds as of 9/24: +2000 at FD

The Patriots entered Week 3 having shut down the Bengals in Week 1 and held the Seahawks to just 20 points in regulation in Week 2. But they were diced up in Week 3 by Rodgers in his easily his best performance as a Jet.

It was just one game, but watching Rodgers shred the Pats for 281 yards on 27-for-35 passing, with 2 TDs no interceptions, it was a hard to shake the feeling that if he can stay healthy, he’s going to have a say in this year’s MVP race.

The Jets’ overhauled O-line paved the way for a total of 133 rushing yards on 33 attempts and allowed just two sacks against New England. If that unit can continue to play at a high level, Rodgers, RBs Breece Hall and Braelon Allen and WR Garrett Wilson are going to be hard to stop.

With or without elite passing numbers, Rodgers (whose stats so far have been solid, but unspectacular) is going to get plenty of love from MVP voters if he leads New York to the playoffs for the first time since 2010.

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