A string of new polls paints a challenging picture for President Donald Trump and the GOP: His approval rating has plunged to a second-term low, cracks are widening in his MAGA coalition, Hispanic support is eroding, Democrats are competitive in deep-red districts, and national polling averages show Trump underwater across every major survey.
Why It Matters
These polls paint a portrait of declining approval, rising disunity among Republican voters, and significant inroads for Democrats—even in historically conservative districts. The unfolding trends could reshape congressional control and influence the GOP’s prospects in 2028 and beyond.
What To Know
Five newly released polls highlight mounting issues for Trump and his party:
- Politico Poll: Fragmented Trump Coalition
Over one-third of Trump’s 2024 voters do not identify as MAGA Republicans, according to a Politico poll. These voters are less likely to support GOP candidates down-ballot and are increasingly critical of Trump’s handling of the economy and cost of living. Just 63 percent trust Republicans on economic issues, compared to 88 percent of MAGA supporters
- Gallup Poll: Trump Approval Hits New Low
Trump’s second-term approval rating has fallen to 36 percent, with disapproval at 60 percent, according to a poll by Gallup. Republican support dropped 7 points to 84 percent, while independents fell 8 points to 25%. Trump scores positive marks only on crime—as party confidence in his handling of the economy, immigration, and the federal budget continues to fall.
- Emerson College/The Hill Poll: Deep-Red Seats in Trouble
An Emerson College/The Hill poll shows the race in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District—where Trump won by 22 points in 2024—has narrowed to a statistical tie. Democrat Aftyn Behn trails her Republican opponent Matt Van Epps by just 2 percentage points, within the margin of error.
- Pew Research Center Poll: Hispanic Voter Discontent Increases Over Immigration Concerns
Recent Pew Research Center polls indicate that two-thirds of Hispanic adults disapprove of Trump’s handling of immigration, and 61 percent say his economic policies have worsened their conditions. Although Trump gained Hispanic voters in 2024, these polls show eroding support; just 25 percent of Hispanic adults now hold a favorable opinion, down from 44 percent before he began his second term.
- Ballotpedia Poll: Universal Trump Disapproval
Ballotpedia’s polling index—which aggregates recent national polls from major sources including YouGov, CBS News, Fox News, Reuters, and The Associated Press—shows that Trump’s approval averages 42 percent, with disapproval at 55 percent, leaving his net rating underwater across all major national polls.
What People Are Saying
Aftyn Behn, Democratic candidate in Tennessee’s 7th District, previously told CNN: “If we get with a certain number of points or if we flip it, that it will signal to Washington Republicans that this agenda that they’ve been running on is not welcomed and is not favorable by most voters, especially in deep-red territory.”
Republican pollster Daron Shaw told Fox News: “People are struggling to afford necessities and blaming those in charge. What’s interesting is watching Democrats gain politically from a problem they arguably caused—and that crushed them in 2024.”
White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson told the Daily Mail that in less than a year, Trump has: “Already delivered on many of the promises he was elected to enact, but there will always be more to accomplish.”
What Happens Next
The upcoming 2026 midterm elections will serve as a crucial test of the current electoral environment, with control of Congress hanging in the balance. The Tennessee special election on December 2, in which Democrats could flip a deep-red seat, will be another immediate signal of national trends.
