The MLB All-Star game starts tonight at 8 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field, the Rangers home stadium. Last year, the NL ended a nine year drought and finally won the All-Star Game with a dramatic 3-2 victory.
As for this year, the books are expecting the AL to get back to their winning ways as they are -118 favorites on the moneyline across most books. Here is how we are betting the All-Star Game tonight, and if you are looking for MVP picks check out our article here.
Play 1: Under 8 (-115) DraftKings
If forced to choose a winner the AL would be the way to go, but the better play here is to take the under and bet on the pitchers once again dominating the event. As mentioned previously, last years game went under by a decent amount with only five total runs scored, and overall only three games have gone over since 2005. In fact, 14 of 17 All-Star Games have gone under, with the average runs scored in that span at roughly 6.5.
It makes sense why these games trend under, though. As the saying goes, good pitching beats good hitting, and the All-Star game is littered with good pitching. The best pitching in the majors, some might say. While the NL is missing some pitching in Chris Sale, Ranger Suarez and Tyler Glasnow, and Logan Gilbert on the AL side, the good news is all those pitchers are starters, which means most of the game will be thrown by relievers who are used to coming out of the bullpen.
Another reason the total tends to go under is the format of the game makes it tough for batters to get into a rhythm. Most of the batters will see two plate appearances at most, and it is rare that they will see the same pitcher twice. So, there is no chance for the batter to either get into a rhythm at the plate, or get a feel of the pitcher they are seeing.
Play 2: 1st Inning Result: National League (+340) FanDuel
Essentially, what we are betting here is that the National League will have the lead after the first inning. To be clear, this is a play that you are going to want to lower your unit size as it is of the longshot variety, but it is not unthinkable that Corbin Burnes gives up a solo shot or a run in the first inning while Paul Skenes shuts the AL down, which is what we are betting here.
Burnes is having a great year and deserves to be starting the All-Star Game, but he is one of those starting pitchers that can take the first inning to settle in. This is not to say he is bad in the first inning, to be clear, but his ERA in the first inning is 2.37, with a .446 slugging and .737 OPS. Then, in the second through fourth innings those numbers drop dramatically. Of all the individual innings, he has given up the most home runs in the first inning with four, and his combined home runs given up in the second-fourth innings is four.
Then, on the other side of the field, Skenes is pitching for the NL and he has been downright unhittable in his early career. He is one of the rare pitchers in MLB history who not only made the All-Star Game the year after being drafted, but is now starting in the All-Star Game. He is coming off of seven no-hit innings against the Dodgers in his last start, and he stays hot to start the ASG tonight.
Play 3: Salvador Perez to Hit a Home Run (+850) FanDuel
This is another longshot prop bet that should have a lower unit size, but it is a longshot worth sprinkling on. As detailed in the MVP article, Perez is our favorite longshot MVP winner at +4500 odds at FanDuel, and for similar logic he is a good bet to hit a home run tonight as well.
The biggest reason to believe in Perez is he crushes fastballs, and specifically fastballs 97MPH and above. His ISO rate on fastballs is .272, which is in the “excellent” category as defined by FanGraphs, but to go even further than that he has the best slugging in the entire MLB on fastballs over 97MPH.
Lastly, the starting catcher for the AL is Adley Rutschman of the Orioles, but Perez is the only backup catcher on the roster for the AL. This means that Perez is likely to get more plate appearances than most batters, giving him more chances to hit one yard. So, if Perez is up in the late innings against a flamethrower out of the ‘pen for the NL, he has among the best chances to hit one out of the ballpark, making this a worthy bet at +850 odds.
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Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
