Kamala Harris Surges Ahead of Donald Trump in New National Poll

Vice President Kamala Harris holds a 3 percentage-point lead over former President Donald Trump in a poll released Friday by Napolitan News Service.

The latest online poll conducted by Scott Rasmussen, who previously founded Rasmussen Reports and RMG Research, surveyed 2,945 likely voters nationwide between October 7 and 10. It found that 50 percent of respondents support Harris, the Democratic nominee, while 47 percent back Trump, the Republican nominee.

Last week, Harris was tied with Trump at 49 percent in a similar Napolitan News Service poll.

The crosstabs ofFriday’s poll show that of the 50 percent who back Harris, 45 percent identify as male and 55 percent as female. Support for Trump is nearly reversed, with 53 percent of his backers identifying as male and 42 percent as female.

Harris leads Trump in every age group except for those 65 and older, with more than 50 percent support in the 18-34, 35-44, 45-54, and 55-64 age brackets. Among voters 65 and older, Trump has 51 percent support, compared to Harris’ 46 percent, according to the poll. Since the previous poll that was conducted between September 30 and October 2, Harris gained among voters aged 45-54 and 55-64.

The poll also found Harris leading among Black voters, 85 percent to Trump’s 14 percent, and among Hispanic voters, 66 percent to Trump’s33 percent. On the other hand, Trump holds a 55 percent to 42 percent advantage among white voters.

When “leaners” are not included, Harris has a two-percentage point lead, 49 percent to 47 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.

FiveThirtyEight gives RMG Research a 2.3 out of 3 rating for its historical track record and methodological transparency.

Steven Cheung, Trump’s campaign spokesperson, told Newsweek in an email on Friday afternoon in response to the poll’s findings: “President Trump is crushing Kamala Harris in the battleground states because voters know she represents a disastrous four years of skyrocketing inflation, an out-of-control border, and rampant crime that terrorizes communities across the country.”

Newsweek reached out to Harris’ campaign for comment via email on Friday.

Most polls this election cycle show an exceptionally close presidential race, with the two major party candidates fluctuating slightly, often within the margin of error.

Nationwide and aggregate polls gauge voter sentiment, but the presidential election is ultimately decided by individual states and their Electoral College votes. To win the presidency, a candidate must secure 270 electoral votes, which doesn’t always align with the national popular vote. State-specific victories are crucial to securing electoral votes, as seen in the 2016 election, when former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but lost the presidency by failing to reach 270 Electoral College votes.

The 2020 presidential race between President Joe Biden and Trump ultimately hinged on tens of thousands of votes in several battleground states, which are expected to be even more competitive this time around and have the power to swing the election.

Most aggregate polls, including FiveThirtyEight, The New York Times, The Hill, and RealClearPolitics all show Harris leading in the national election. However, among battleground states, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona, the race is deadlocked, with most pollsters showing a nearly 1 percent margin between Trump and Harris, that often changes daily.