David McCormick Within Striking Distance of Bob Casey in Pennsylvania: Poll

A poll published on Saturday shows Pennsylvania Republican U.S. Senate challenger David McCormick gaining ground on Senator Bob Casey, nearly halving the incumbent’s lead since last month’s survey by the same pollsters.

With less than a month until Election Day, which will determine who becomes the next U.S. president and control of Congress, the Senate majority is up for grabs with razor-thin margins. The upper chamber is currently controlled by the Democrats, who hold a narrow majority of 51 seats as four independents caucus with the party, while Republicans hold 49 seats.

McCormick is a businessman, veteran, and politician who previously served as chief executive officer of Bridgewater Associates, a large hedge fund, and Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs during the George W. Bush administration. This is his second senatorial campaign, the first was back in 2022. He is running to unseat Casey, who has represented the state in the Senate since 2007 and serves as the chair of the Senate Special Committee on Aging.

A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll of 857 likely voters that was conducted between October 7 and 10 found that 48 percent of Pennsylvanian voters support the incumbent, 44 percent back McCormick, and 8 percent are undecided or declined to answer.

Casey’s 4-percentage point lead is just beyond the poll’s margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.

The poll’s crosstabs show Casey leading among women voters, 54 percent to McCormick’s 37 percent, while McCormick holds an edge among men, 52 percent to Casey’s 41 percent.

McCormick polls worst among voters age 30-44, earning 37 percent compared to Casey’s 53 percent. On the other hand, Casey performs worst among younger voters, aged 18-29 years old, though he still leads with 44 percent to McCormick’s 42 percent.

Newsweek has reached out to Casey’s and McCormick’s campaigns for comment via email on Saturday evening.

Saturday’s poll also asked voters their preference for control of the U.S. Senate, with 48 percent favoring Democratic control, 46 percent supporting Republican control, and 6 percent undecided or declining to answer.

This latest poll finds that Casey’s lead has nearly halved, as a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll of 1,082 likely voters from September 11 to 16, found Casey with a 9-point lead, 49 percent to McCormick’s 40 percent.

The Cook Political Report labels the Pennsylvania Senate race as “Leans Democratic,” alongside two other battleground states, Arizona and Nevada, with Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio’s Senate seats classified as “Toss Up.”

Up the ticket, Pennsylvania is one of the closest swing state races for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees, respectively.

Saturday’s Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll found Harris leading Trump by 3 percentage points in the state, within the poll’s margin of error. Other recent polls in the battleground state show a near deadlock between the two nominees, with any lead falling within the margin of error.

The Times‘ Pennsylvania aggregate poll has Harris ahead of Trump, 49 to 48 percent. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight shows a closer race, with Harris at 47.9 percent and Trump at 47.5 percent. The Hill’s aggregate polling has Harris at 48.6 percent and Trump at 48 percent.