College Football Week 8 Best Bets: Undefeated Indiana on Upset Alert?

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We’ll tackle both Alabama-Tennessee and Georgia-Texas in detail later this weekend, but for now, our best bets of Week 8 include the following matchups (all times ET):

• Nebraska vs. No. 16 Indiana (12 p.m., FOX)
• No. 24 Michigan vs. No. 22 Illinois (3:30 p.m., CBS)
• Colorado vs. Arizona (4 p.m., FOX)

Nebraska (+6.5) vs. Indiana

Indiana (6-0, 3-0 Big Ten) has been one of the biggest surprises of the season this year.

Under first-year head coach Curt Cignetti, the Hoosiers are not just winning games, but doing so in style. IU has outscored its first three Big Ten opponents this year 125-60. In fact, Indiana has scored at least 40 points in each of its last five games after a 31-7 season-opening win over FIU.

The catch is that the competition has not been good.

FIU and Charlotte are both outside ESPN SP+’s top 100, while Big Ten foes UCLA (SP+ No. 79) and Northwestern (SP+ No. 71) have not been impressive, either. The best team Indiana has faced was Maryland (SP+ No. 52) back in Week 5, and IU committed four turnovers and only led by one score entering the fourth quarter of that game.

There are valid questions about how this team will fare against better competition, and we should get some answers on that front on Saturday. Nebraska (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) is unranked and coming off a rough first year under Matt Rhule, but the Huskers have once again been excellent defensively in 2024 after dominating on that side of the ball a year ago.

Nebraska’s only loss this year came in overtime to No. 22 Illinois on September 20. The stingy Huskers defense — which is seventh in the country in points allowed per game at just 11.3 and No. 1 according to SP+ — has given up 10 points or fewer in five of six games this year, including a dominant 28-10 win over high-flying Colorado.

If veteran Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke — who is 118-of-160 passing for 1,752 yards, 14 TDs, 2 interceptions as a Hoosier after transferring from Ohio in the offseason — can light up Nebraska, it will officially be time to start looking at the Hoosiers as a contender in the Big Ten.

For this week, though, we expect Indiana to struggle against Nebraska, whose defense makes it a strong play as nearly a touchdown underdog, especially if star freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola can take care of the football.

Best bets:

• Nebraska +6.5 (-105 at bet365, DraftKings) 1 unit
• Nebraska moneyline (+200 at bet365, DK) 0.5 units

Michigan vs. Illinois (+152)

Another Big Ten matchup, another ranked team at risk of an upset loss. The reigning national champs are only slight favorites in this matchup. Still, this line still feels disrespectful to Illinois.

The Illini (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) have just lost once this season, on the road to No. 3 Penn State in a night game that was tied at halftime at 7-7 on September 28. Bret Bielema’s team is rock-solid, and it should be able hang with a Michigan squad that hardly resembles the one we watched win the national championship a year ago.

The Wolverines (4-2, 2-1 Big Ten) have already dropped two games this year, a blowout home loss to Texas and an ugly 27-17 L against Washington. The loss to the Huskies was particularly concerning, as UW has lost to Washington State, Rutgers and Iowa.

Michigan should not be laying this many points on the road against one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country in Illinois signal caller Luke Altmyer. Despite facing two of the best defenses in the country this year (Nebraska and Penn State are both top-five, according to SP+), Altmyer has completed 67.7 percent of his passes for 1,426 yards, 14 TDs and just 1 interception this year.

In the biggest game in Champaign, Illinois, in a long time, don’t be surprised if Illinois wins a low-scoring battle outright. If you’re not quite willing to pull the trigger on the Illini on the moneyline, they’re also a good value play at +4 (-110) on the spread.

Best bet: Illinois moneyline (+152 at FanDuel) 1 unit

Colorado vs. Arizona (Over 58)

Both the Buffaloes and the Wildcats entered the 2024 season with high hopes thanks to their high-octane QBs and WRs. Halfway through the campaign, Arizona’s Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan and Colorado stars Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter have been as good as advertised.

Arizona (3-3, 1-2 Big 12) upset Utah in Week 5, and Colorado (4-2, 2-1 Big 12) has won two of its first three conference games, including a near-upset of Kansas State last Saturday night. Both teams are giving up plenty of points, though, which is why they’re longshots to win the wide-open Big 12. Colorado is currently +2000 to win the league, and Arizona is +6000 entering Week 8.

What the combination of potent offenses and struggling defenses means for Saturday night is a strong likelihood of a high-scoring shootout.

Colorado’s last three games included a 38-31 win over Baylor, a 48-21 win over UCF and a 31-28 loss to Kansas State (all three of those scores would have cashed the over for Colorado-Arizona this weekend).

Arizona has played in several shootouts of its own this year, including

• Week 1 vs. New Mexico: UA 61, New Mexico 39
• Week 6 vs. Texas Tech: TT 28, UA 22
• Week 7 vs. BYU: BYU 41, UA 19

We like this one to go over 58. We also recommend taking Colorado to go over its team total against a Wildcats defense that has already given up 28 points or more four times this year.

Best bets:

• Over 58 (-110 at bet365, DK) 1 unit
• Colorado Team Total Over 34.5 (+220 at FD) 0.5 units

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