Vice President Kamala Harris is back in the lead in the swing state of Michigan, according to the latest polling from Quinnipiac University.
A survey released Wednesday found that Harris is ahead of former President Donald Trump 49 percent to 46 percent. The poll was based on the responses of 1,136 likely voters collected by telephone between October 17 and 21.
The poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percent, roughly the same as the gap between Harris and Trump. But it is a positive sign for Democrats as the same poll conducted at the beginning of October found Trump leading by 3 points (50 percent to 47 percent). That poll had a margin of error of 3.1 points and is based on the responses of 1,007 likely voters.
In September, Harris held a 5-point lead (50 percent to 45 percent) in Michigan, according to polling by Quinnipiac University.
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a rally at the Dort Financial Center on October 4 in Flint, Michigan. A recent poll from Quinnipiac University shows that Harris has regained the lead… Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a rally at the Dort Financial Center on October 4 in Flint, Michigan. A recent poll from Quinnipiac University shows that Harris has regained the lead in Michigan less than two weeks before Election Day.
Scott Olson/Getty Images
Both presidential campaigns have prioritized stops in Michigan in the final weeks before Election Day. The state was won by President Joe Biden in 2020, but poll trackers show that Harris is only marginally ahead of Trump there. On Wednesday, FiveThirtyEight found that Harris is up by 0.6 points on average in the Great Lakes State. She is ahead by 1.8 points across national polls overall.
Early voting in Michigan will kick off on Saturday, although some jurisdictions have already opened polling booths. According to Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, more than 1.2 million voters have cast an absentee or early voting ballot as of Wednesday, making up roughly 17.2 percent of the state’s active registered voters.
Harris is scheduled to hold a get-out-the-vote event in Michigan on the first day of statewide early voting along with Michelle Obama, marking the first time the former first lady will hit the campaign trail to support Harris. Former President Barack Obama was in Detroit on Tuesday night on behalf of Harris and was introduced by rapper Eminem, adding to the long list of artists that have endorsed the Democratic ticket.
Trump is making two stops in Michigan that coincide with the state’s early voting this week. The former president will host an event in Traverse City on Friday night and appear in Novi on Saturday.
His chances in Michigan have been boosted in part because of inroads his campaign has made among union voters. According to a poll commissioned by Marketing Resource Group this month, 42 percent of union voters in Michigan plan to vote for Trump, up 11 points from the same survey conducted in the spring. Meanwhile, 51 percent of union workers said they are supporting Harris.
Harris has secured the endorsement of several major unions but failed to secure the backing of two groups that supported Biden in 2020—the International Brotherhood of Teamsters and the International Association of Firefighters.
Trump has also made gains among Arab American voters, another key voting bloc in Michigan that has put pressure on Harris’ campaign over the White House’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
Newsweek reached out to the Harris and Trump campaigns via email on Wednesday for comment.
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