Jon Tester’s Chances of Beating Tim Sheehy in Montana: New Poll

Senator Jon Tester trails Republican challenger Tim Sheehy in Montana’s U.S. Senate race, a contest that could determine control of the chamber, according to a new poll released Sunday.

With just over a week until Election Day, which will determine who controls Congress as well as the White House, the Senate majority is up for grabs, with razor-thin margins. The upper chamber is controlled by the Democrats, who hold a narrow majority of 51 seats as four independents caucus with the party, while the Republicans hold 49.

Tester, a Democrat first elected in 2006, is facing a challenge for his seat from Donald Trump-backed Republican businessman Sheehy. Tester is a three-term, moderate senator, and his opponent, Sheehy, is a former Navy SEAL and an entrepreneur.

Montana, traditionally a Republican-leaning state, is expected to easily back Trump in the presidential race and therefore Tester would need to split voters’ tickets again. The former president won Montana in 2020 by 16 points against President Joe Biden.

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of 1,000 likely voters in Montana conducted from October 23 to 25 finds Sheehy with a 4-percentage point lead over Tester, 50 to 46 percent. Sheehy’s lead is outside of the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points and shows a tightening of the race from earlier polls that put Sheehy up higher.

Three percent of respondents said they were undecided, and 2 percent are voting for someone else. Among undecided voters, Tester gains ground, with a combined Senate vote of 48 percent for Tester and 50.6 percent for Sheehy.

The Republican and Democratic Senate candidates have similar favorability ratings in the state, with 48 percent of respondents having a somewhat favorable view of both.

“The race finds a stark gender divide: women break for Tester by about 14 points, 55 percent to 41 percent, while men break for Sheehy by 22 points, 59 percent to 37 percent,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.

This poll finds an increase of Sheehy’s support from an August Emerson College Polling/ The Hill survey of 1,000 likely voters that found Sheehy at 48 percent to Tester’s 46 percent. That poll was conducted between August 5 and 6.

Newsweek filed out a contact request form on Sheehy’s website for comment and emailed Tester’s campaign on Sunday.

However, among other recent polls, the latest Emerson College Polling/ The Hill survey shows a tighter margin between the two candidates. A New York Times/Siena College poll of 656 likely voters from October 5 to 8 showed Sheehy leading Tester, 52 to 44 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 points.

Aggregate state polls show Sheehy leading in the state as well, with FiveThirtyEight showing Sheehy up 5.3 percentage points as of Sunday, 49.6 percent to Tester’s 44.3 percent. The Hill aggregate shows Sheehy with 51.4 percent compared to Tester’s 44.1 percent.

The Cook Political Report lists the race as a “lean Republican.” The Hill forecasts that Sheehy has a 79 percent chance of flipping the state as of Sunday morning, while FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows a 90 percent chance Sheehy wins the seat.