Kamala Harris’ Chances of Winning Wisconsin: Polls

The race for Wisconsin is extremely close as Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump held dueling rallies in the key swing state on Friday.

The Badger State is considered a must-win contest in the 2024 election. The state and its 10 electoral votes were taken by President Joe Biden in 2020, who won the state by just 0.7 percent of the overall vote. In 2016, Trump won there over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, also by 0.7 percent.

According to tracking from 538, Harris leads across Wisconsin polls by 0.8 points (48.2 percent to 47.4 percent) on average. The battleground state, however, is considered a toss-up race, per 538’s election forecast model.

According to pollster Nate Silver, Harris is slightly favored to take the state next week, with Silver’s election forecast giving the vice president a 55.8 percent chance of victory over Trump’s 44.2 percent.

Silver estimates that Wisconsin has a 9 percent chance of tipping the presidential election results. If Harris secures the state on Tuesday, she has a 74.3 percent chance of winning the overall race, per Silver’s model. If Trump wins Wisconsin, he has an 89.8 percent chance of overall victory.

In a poll by AtlasIntel conducted on October 30 and October 31, Harris and Trump were found tied at 49 percent out of 673 likely Wisconsin voters. A survey by American Greatness and TIPP Insights from October 28 to October 30 found a similar result, with the candidates tied at 48 percent among 831 likely voters.

A poll by OnMessage, a GOP firm, found Trump leading by 1 percent (48 percent to 47 percent) based on the response of 800 likely voters from October 29 to October 31. Harris was up by the same margin in a poll from Redfield & Wilton Strategies/The Telegraph conducted from October 28 and October 31, based on responses of 932 likely voters.

Harris hosted supporters at the Wisconsin State Fair Exposition Center in West Allis Friday night, which featured performances from GloRilla, Flo Milli and a surprise appearance by comic Keegan-Michael Key before the Democratic nominee took the stage. Trump held a rally at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, the same site where he was nominated at the Republican National Convention in July.

Harris holds the support of Wisconsin’s top state officials, including Governor Tony Evers, who made an appearance at the vice president’s “get out the vote” rally near the University of Wisconsin-Madison on Wednesday.

“This election is gonna be close, damn close,” Evers told Harris’ supporters earlier in the week. “We have the momentum, but this is Wisconsin, after all, and we know a thing or two about close elections.”

On Friday, Evers appeared on CNN’s The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer and offered a scathing criticism of Trump in light of his recent attacks against former Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney, who the former president suggested should be targeted “with nine barrels shooting at her.”

“One of the things that does bother me about it is during this everyday, every week conversation about what he has said, you know, there are kids around the state of Wisconsin and around this country frankly are thinking that’s appropriate behavior,” Evers said of Trump’s remarks. “And, believe me, that is inappropriate behavior … He just needs to end it, but frankly, it’ll never happen. I mean, that’s part of his DNA.”

Newsweek reached out to Harris and Trump’s campaigns via email Friday for comment on the state of the race in Wisconsin.