Chances of Election Being a Tie, According to Forecast Models

In what might be the closest election in U.S. history, the chances of a 269-269 Electoral College tie—are unusually plausible, according to forecasting models and recent polls.

Polling analyst Nate Silver said in a blog post Tuesday that the odds are “about as close as you can possibly get to 50/50.”

Silver ran 80,000 simulations of the election on his polling aggregate model, with Harris narrowly winning 50.015% of the time. However, a 269-269 tie emerged in 294 simulations, or roughly 0.4% of the total. “I felt like I was spinning a roulette wheel,” Silver said, noting the thin margins in crucial swing states could swing either way depending on small variations in voter turnout.

This razor-thin margin is echoed in betting odds as well as polling.

SkyBet, an online betting platform, currently lists the probability of a 269-269 tie at 16/1, or 5.9%.

The situation could occur if, in the seven battleground states, Harris takes Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while Trump prevails in Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Each candidate could also trade Georgia and North Carolina and the result would be the same.

It could also occur if Harris wins the three Blue wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, but loses Nebraska’s second congressional district, while Trump wins the remaining four battlegrounds (polling suggests Harris is likely to win Nebraska’s 2^nd Congressional District). Other scenarios are possible but arguably less likely.

If a tie occurs, the House of Representatives would be required to decide the election, as outlined in Article II of the Constitution and the 12^th amendment.

The way this would work is that each state—regardless of the size of the state’s delegation in the U.S. House of Representatives—gets one vote.

Republicans currently hold majorities in 26 of the 50 states but it would be the newly elected House which would cast the vote on January 3, 2025.

If a state has an even number of representatives and an even split between Republicans and Democrats, that state’s delegation cannot form a majority in favor of one candidate, and that state therefore abstains from voting.

Only the states with clear delegation majorities (either Democratic or Republican) cast votes for a candidate. The candidate who wins the majority of state delegation votes (at least 26 out of 50) in the House becomes president.

The House last decided a presidential election in 1824, when John Quincy Adams was chosen despite Andrew Jackson leading in both popular and electoral votes. In that case, although the results were not tied, there were four candidates, none of whom secured a majority in the Electoral College.