Chart Shows Plummeting Migrant Numbers Crossing Darien Gap Headed to US

New data released by Panama’s government Friday showed plummeting numbers of migrants journeying through the treacherous Darien Gap.

Monthly statistics showed vastly reduced movements compared to six months ago, with 11,144 recorded in November compared to over 30,000 in May.

While numbers fluctuate depending on the seasons, one expert said the political situation thousands of miles north in the United States could have influenced migrants’ decision-making.

“The November 5 election of a virulently anti-immigrant president in the United States may also be causing would-be migrants to change their plans, for now, until they have better information about what may await them,” Adam Isacson, director for defense oversight at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), told Newsweek.

The Darien Gap is a dense jungle region stretching 70 miles. In 2023, over half a million migrants used it while headed north toward Mexico and, eventually, the U.S.

Over the past four years, numbers surged in mid-2021, with Haitians making up the majority of migrants in the area, before falling again in the first half of 2022. Later that year, and for a sustained period up until May 2024, monthly numbers were at least 20,000, at some points reaching over 75,000.

Then, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced it was working with Panama’s government to stem the flow of those moving through the area, often putting themselves at risk of sexual abuse, violence and kidnapping from criminal gangs working along the route.

Panama’s President José Raúl Mulino also pledged to close the Darien Gap, although that has not happened yet.

During the recent surges in crossings, the U.S. was experiencing record numbers at its southwest border with Mexico, a country also struggling to deal with the vast numbers who were trying to stay or had been left waiting for an appointment with U.S. border officials.

Isacson’s analysis suggested that changes in stances from both countries could explain the drop in Darien Gap movements.

“Likely explanations could be word getting out about Mexico’s stepped-up efforts to block migrants, which began in January, and perhaps some Venezuelans postponing plans pending the outcome of July’s presidential elections,” he said.

The U.S.-Panama partnership also saw 34 deportation flights between August and November, removing around 1,370 people, according to Witness at the Border. This is only a small percentage of migrants each month, but the program could have been enough to deter some.

In October, Refugees International warned that increasingly hostile measures in and around the Darien Gap would not deter all migrants from making the crossing but that they would then be left without much support in Panama.

“Humanitarian needs along the Darien Gap will remain high for the foreseeable future as migration through the gap continues,” the organization said in a report, adding that increased legal pathways to the U.S. were one way to stop people making the treacherous journey.