Trump Resignation Chances Surge Before White House Announcement—Polymarket

The chances of Donald Trump resigning have spiked over the last day on a cryptocurrency-based prediction market following speculation about the U.S. president’s health and absence from public engagements over the last week.

Polymarket increased the chances of a presidential resignation after the Trump administration said there would be an Oval Office news conference at 2 p.m. ET Tuesday without specifying the reason for the event.

However, later White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told Newsweek in a statement “the President will be making an exciting announcement related to the Department of Defense.”

The event follows days of speculation about Trump which included false claims he had died, and rumors of major health issues. Trump appeared to quash the rumors with a Truth Social post and he has been pictured in recent days heading to his golf course.

Why It Matters

Trump’s last public engagement was a Cabinet meeting on August 26 but the lack of events since then have fueled speculation about the president’s health, with some social media users even falsely claiming that he had died.

An empty schedule for the president could be explained by the Labor Day weekend. During his first term, Trump took summer vacations which included stints at his Bedminster, New Jersey club during August—14 days in 2017, 15 in 2018, 14 in 2019, and seven in 2020, during the Covid pandemic, CNN reported.

Adding to the febrile speculation in recent days were comments made by Vice President JD Vance to USA Today that he was ready to step into the top job and an unusual Oval Office statement scheduled Tuesday afternoon.

What To Know

Polymarket is a New York-headquartered cryptocurrency-based prediction market in which gamblers can place bets on a range of events, including economic indicators and political and legislative outcomes. During the U.S. election campaign more than $1 billion was placed on whether Kamala Harris or Trump would win, the Crypto News website reported.

On its page, “Will Trump resign in 2025” gamblers could bet on the chances of the president stepping down and this level had hovered around 3.3 to 3.5 percent for much of August.

This increased to over 4 percent at 8 a.m. Saturday following social media speculation about the president’s public absence and unsubstantiated claims about his health.

By Sunday morning, the chances of his resignation had reached 4.5 percent then dipped slightly below 4 percent for the rest of the day on which the president posted on Truth Social that he “never felt better.”

The chances remained over 4 percent but then spiked to 5.7 percent on Monday night after news of an Oval Office media statement had been reported.

This level continued to increase through the night, peaking at 10.4 percent at 1.30 a.m. Tuesday, before dropping back down to 5.4 percent by around 6 a.m.—still higher than the previous month.

Polymarket users posted comments which included repeating some of the false claims about Trump’s death. One posted that such an Oval Office announcement “happens almost never” which pointed to a possible resignation.

One user wrote “Only took 5 minutes to buy at 1c and sell at 2c… only took 7 minutes to buy at 0.5c and sell at 1c… loving this market so far” although another posted “the odds of this being a nothing burger are quite high.”

What People Are Saying

White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt: “The President will be making an exciting announcement related to the Department of Defense.”

Mikey Smith, journalist, the Mirror wrote on X: “People getting very excited about this— but worth remembering the White House has included unspecified “announcements” on the daily schedule twice in the last 3 weeks or so, and both times it was nothing interesting.”

What Happens Next

Anticipation will mount ahead of the Trump statement on Tuesday with the press pool present. Such events often include taking questions. It’s not described as a formal speech to the nation.

Meanwhile, speculation about the president’s health is likely to continue afterwards given he is 79 and the White House announcement in July that he had been diagnosed with chronic venous insufficiency.