President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen below water in every major swing state for the first time since taking office, according to a new set of state-level polls.
The latest Morning Consult survey shows the president’s net approval is now negative across all seven battlegrounds expected to decide the 2026 election—Pennsylvania (-2), Michigan (-5), Wisconsin (-8), Arizona (-2), Georgia (-1), Nevada (-3), and North Carolina (-3).
Why It Matters
Trump’s slipping approval in every swing state highlights growing voter unease in the regions most likely to decide control of Congress and the balance of power in Washington. His declining support could weaken Republican prospects ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Trump won all the swing states in the 2024 election.
What To Know
Nationally, Trump’s net approval is above water in just 24 states, down from 25 in the last update, after Georgia and Arizona became the latest to flip from positive to negative territory. In May, Arizona voters were evenly divided on Trump’s job performance; now, Trump’s net approval stands at -2 points. In Georgia, Trump’s net approval flipped from +3 points to -1.
In Pennsylvania, his net approval fell from even (0) in spring to -2 by September. In Michigan, it dropped from -3 to -5, and in Wisconsin, from -6 to -8—continuing a steady erosion in the Upper Midwest.
Meanwhile, the picture also worsened in other Sun Belt states, in Nevada from +4 to -3, and North Carolina from +3 to -3.
The declines extend to states set to hold key 2025 gubernatorial contests. In Virginia, Trump’s approval has fallen to 43 percent, down from 47 percent in the first quarter of the year, while 54 percent of voters now disapprove—up from 50 percent over that period. In New Jersey, 42 percent of voters approve of Trump, compared with 54 percent who disapprove, marking a 1-point increase in disapproval since early 2025.
The 2025 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey are emerging as key political tests for both parties ahead of the 2026 midterms. In Virginia, Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin is barred by term limits from seeking reelection, setting up a closely watched contest between Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears and former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger.
Recent polls show Spanberger holding a narrow lead, with a Trafalgar poll putting her ahead 47.7 percent to 45.1 percent among likely voters, while other surveys show wider margins.
In New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill is facing Republican Jack Ciattarelli, who is making his second bid for governor after losing narrowly in 2021. Republicans see the race as a potential chance to regain momentum in a state that has leaned Democratic for decades. However, polling suggests Sherrill maintains a modest lead of around 6 points.
Both states are drawing national attention as the only gubernatorial contests in 2025—the first major statewide elections since Trump’s return to the White House—making them a preview of how voters may respond to the administration’s policies.
Beyond the state races, control of swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina will be central to determining the balance of power in Congress in the 2026 midterms.
It is a longstanding pattern in U.S. politics that the party holding the White House tends to lose seats in Congress during the midterm elections. Since World War II, the president’s party has lost House seats in nearly every midterm cycle, often by wide margins.
And early polling suggests the generic congressional ballot is tilting toward Democrats. However, things remain competitive, with CNN predicting that the Democrats could lose up to 19 seats in the House of Representatives, meaning the GOP would hold on to its control of the chamber.
However, presidents with approval ratings below 50 percent tend to see even larger losses: on average, they have lost about 37 House seats, according to Gallup.
Multiple recent polls have put Trump’s approval rating below 50 percent. Newsweek’s tracker put it at 44 percent.
Meanwhile, the latest nationwide Morning Consult polling put his approval rating at 45 percent.
What Happens Next
Political strategists and pollsters say sustained sub-majority approval ratings can harm the sitting president’s party in midterm elections by motivating opposition turnout and complicating messaging for swing-district Republican candidates.
