Republican Jack Ciattarelli is within striking distance of Democrat Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey’s gubernatorial race, according to a new poll showing a razor-thin margin between the two contenders.
The Trafalgar Group/Insider Advantage poll showed Sherrill leading with 45.4 percent, compared to 44.3 percent for Ciattarelli, while 3.8 percent back other candidates and 6.5 percent remain undecided.
Newsweek has contacted Sherrill and Ciattarelli for comment via email.
Why It Matters
The tightening race underscores growing volatility in blue-leaning states and could signal a broader political shift heading into 2026.
A strong performance—or potential upset—by Ciattarelli would suggest Republican momentum in the suburbs and challenge the durability of Democratic dominance in the Northeast, offering both parties a preview of how economic pressures and attitudes toward Trump are reshaping the political map.
What To Know
It comes after other polls have put Sherrill further ahead of her opponent. A Fox News/Beacon Research–Shaw & Co. survey conducted October 10–14 found Sherrill leading 50–45 percent among likely voters (+5 points) and 48–44 percent among registered voters (+4 points).
A Quinnipiac University poll released October 17 showed a similar margin, with Sherrill ahead 51–44 percent (+7 points) and 50–44 percent (+6 points) in two separate samples, while Public Policy Polling (October 2–3) had Sherrill up 49–43 percent (+6 points). A Rasmussen Reports survey (October 8–9) showed Sherrill ahead by the same margin.
However, some recent polling seems to indicate a much tighter race. Neighborhood Research and Media (October 6–9) found the contest tied at 44–44, and Quantus Insights (September 29–30) had Sherrill narrowly ahead 48–46 (+2 points). The Hill/Emerson College (September 22–23) poll also found the race dead even at 43–43.
The Trafalgar poll showed that Sherill still outperforms her opponent among women, Black voters, Hispanics and Gen Z voters. while Ciattarelli leads among men, white voters, older voters and independents.
Meanwhile, both Democrats and Republicans have largely lined up behind their candidates: 78 percent of Democrats say that they’ll vote for Sherrill, and 86 percent of Republicans say that they’ll back Ciattarelli.
Polls have also largely shown that Sherrill is viewed more favorably than Ciattarelli. In the latest Quinnipiac poll, Sherrill had a a 43 percent favorability rating and 38 percent unfavorable rating. Eighteen percent said they had not heard enough about her. Ciattarelli landed a 39 percent favorability rating and 46 percent unfavorable rating, and 13 percent said they had not heard enough about him.
An FDU poll from October 17 showed that Sherrill is viewed more positively by Republicans than Ciattarelli is by Democrats.
Voters in New Jersey still see a clear ideological divide between Sherrill and Ciattarelli, reflecting the broader partisan split shaping the state’s tight governor’s race. The FDU poll showed that on a 1–10 ideological scale, Sherrill is viewed as distinctly liberal at 7.6, while Ciattarelli is seen as firmly conservative at 2.6.
Republicans view Sherrill as far more liberal (8.6) than Democrats do (6.8), while there’s broad agreement across party lines that Ciattarelli sits solidly on the right.
“Generally, people think their opponent is way more extreme than their own candidate is, but that’s just not happening here,” said Dan Cassino, a Professor of Government and Politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University. “Democrats think Sherrill is much more moderate than Republicans do, but basically everyone agrees that Ciattarelli is very conservative, even members of his own party.”
What People Are Saying
Dan Cassino, a Professor of Government and Politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University, and the Executive Director of the FDU Poll, said: “So far, this race is going exactly as expected. Undecided voters have almost all made up their minds, and partisans have put aside any misgivings and lined up behind their candidates.”
Sherrill, on X Wednesday: “New Jersey can’t risk a governor who’s vowed to bring the MAGA agenda to New Jersey, defund Planned Parenthood, and supports an abortion ban. I’ll protect abortion rights and ensure the strongest possible protections for providers in our state.”
Ciattarelli, on X Wednesday: “Mikie Sherrill is completely out of touch. While New Jersey families tighten their budgets to afford skyrocketing energy bills and the highest taxes in the nation, she used her time in Congress to triple her net worth and even got fined for it. New Jersey deserves a Governor who’s focused on helping families get ahead — not enriching herself while they struggle to get by.”
What Happens Next
The Garden State’s gubernatorial election is set for November 4. Both campaigns are expected to intensify outreach efforts to sway undecided voters and address core policy concerns.
