Ahead of tonight’s Monday Night Football clash between the New England Patriots (10-2) and the New York Giants (2-10), let’s break down the best Giants vs. Patriots player prop bets.
While the Patriots — who have won nine games in a row — are the hottest team in the league and have a realistic chance to enter the playoffs as the 1-seed in the AFC, the Giants are on a six-game losing streak.
The Pats do have some injury concerns tonight, though, as at least two starting O-linemen will be sidelined. The Giants should get a spark from rookie QB Jaxson Dart’s return, but they’re nevertheless heavy road underdogs (+7.5) in Foxborough.
Below, we’ll break down why we expect Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson and Jaxson Dart to cash their receiving and ATTD props, respectively.
T. Henderson Over 2.5 Receptions (+104 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
The case for Henderson as a receiver actually starts with the biggest red flag for the 10-2 Patriots. I’m referring to the New England O-line, of course. The Pats have allowed Drake Maye to be sacked on over 9 percent of his pass attempts.
And tonight, New England will be without rookie left tackle Will Campbell and left guard Jared Wilson. Patriots center Garrett Bradbury is also questionable, which could make this a long night for the New England offense.
One workaround with a banged-up O-line could be a steady stream of targets to Henderson. The dynamic rookie has drawn at least 4 targets in three of his last four games dating back to Week 9. Against the Falcons, Bucs, Jets and Bengals, Henderson turned a total of 16 targets into 13 catches for 81 yards, including 5 catches for 31 yards and a TD vs. the Jets in Week 11.
Henderson is also tempting given the numbers that opposing running backs have recently posted as pass-catchers vs. New York. The Giants allowed a staggering 11 receptions to Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs last week (though they did hold him to just 45 receiving yards). This defense also gave up 5 catches for 18 yards to the Bears’ D’Andre Swift in Week 10, and it allowed 5 catches for 67 yards to San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey in Week 9.
Based on those numbers, I’m not sold on Henderson going for big yardage as a receiver tonight, but I do expect him to easily record 3 receptions or more. He’s also tempting to record at least 4 receptions, especially at +235 at FD.
On the season, Henderson has been on the field for at least 60 percent of the offensive snaps four times, with 3+ receptions in three of those games.
Jaxson Dart Anytime Touchdown (+270 at FD) — 0.25 units
Another tempting Giants vs. Patriots player prop bet is Jaxson Dart to find the end zone as either a runner or receiver. Let’s start with the fact that Dart has scored 7 rushing TDs this year. In seven starts from Weeks 2-9, the former Ole Miss star found the end zone in six of seven weeks, with six rushing TDs in his last five games before going out with an injury in his team’s Week 10 loss to the Bears.
The fact that Dart is returning from a concussion that sidelined him the last two weeks will likely result in a lighter rushing workload than usual. I still expect Dart to use his legs a few times tonight, though. That’s admittedly a gut feeling, as Dart’s rushing statistics this year were recorded in games he entered at full strength.
That being said, Dart’s 55 carries in eight starts — with at least five carries in each of those games — make it hard to imagine him being a non-factor as a runner.
It’s also worth noting that despite starting just seven of the Giants’ 12 games this year, Dart has racked up 14 of his team’s 70 total red-zone rushing attempts (20 percent). If you also include the red-zone rushing attempts New York has dialed up for Jameis Winston and Russell Wilson, a whopping 23 of the Giants’ 70 (32.8 percent) runs inside the 20 have gone to their quarterbacks.
It’s worth repeating that we should not expect the exact same approach given that Dart recently missed time with a concussion. But at minimum, he’s well worth a flier to find the end zone at nearly 3-to-1 odds.
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