The Boston Red Sox took a step toward scaling back their surplus of outfielders on Thursday when they dealt the organization’s No. 3 overall prospect, Jhostynxon “The Password” Garcia, to the Pittsburgh Pirates in a package headlined by pitcher Johan Oviedo
. With an overflow of outfielders, Garcia — who is rated 85th among all prospects in baseball by MLB Pipeline — simply had no path to a major league roster spot with the Red Sox.
That still leaves four starting outfielders at the top level, however. With the pending return of former No. 1 prospect in baseball Roman Anthony from an oblique injury to join Gold Glovers Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu, the odd man out appears to be 29-year-old fifth-year outfielder Jarren Duran, the 2024 All-Star Game MVP.
As a result, Duran has been at the center of trade rumors perhaps more persistently this offseason than any other Red Sox player. The latest comes from the popular Red Sox podcast Play Tessie, hosted by WEEI radio, which carries the team’s broadcasts.
In the Play Tessie scenario, the Red Sox ship Duran to the Houston Astros and, in return, get 11-year veteran first baseman Christian Walker, who signed with the Astros as a free agent, after eight years with the Arizona Diamondbacks, before this season for $60 million over three years.
But that’s not all. The Red Sox in this scenario would also receive left-handed relief pitcher Bryan King, who has posted an ERA of 2.67 over 94 1/3 innings in his two years. The Astros would round out the deal by sending their 2023 first-round pick Brice Matthews, a second base prospect rated in the MLB Pipeline top 100, at No. 93.
Finally, the Astros send Boston $15 million in cash to offset part of Walker’s $20 million per year salary.
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“It’s basically two years, 12.5 million for Christian Walker. Who, for those of you who don’t know, is a guaranteed 20 to 30 home runs, and excellent first baseman, even at his age of 34 right now,” explained Play Tessie co-host Pat Brown. “On top of that, Bryan King, who I will take it to my grave, is the most underrated reliever in baseball.”
Given that the Astros only signed Walker before this season, why would they let him go for Jarren Duran? A look at their comparative statistics may give an answer. Duran is due $7.7 million in salary next season and remains under team control through 2028.
For that price, based on 2025 statistics, Duran exceeds Walker in almost every offensive category. In the season just completed, Duran compiled a wins above replacement (WAR) of 4.7 compared to a mere 0.2 for Walker. While Walker hit more home runs, 27 to 16, Duran’s OPS of .774 was 57 points higher than Walker’s, and the 29-year-old outfielder stole 24 bases.
Speed is not part of Walker’s game. He managed two stolen bases all season.
The Red Sox may want to hold off on the deal proposed by Brown, unless they have no other alternatives for trading Duran. But a trade does appear inevitable, unless the Red Sox are willing to take the chance of relegating a starting player who has missed only five games in the last two seasons to the bench — a situation that rarely works out well.
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