Late in the season, a bust showing at any position can lead to empty pockets and a ticket home in the fantasy postseason. Identifying poor matchups is sometimes easy, but there are other cases in which players and offenses don’t play well even when they should have an edge.
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
The Bears enter Week 14 with the number one seed in the NFC, thanks to the five-game winning streak. On the year, Chicago has only outscored their opponents by six points, with the second-easiest schedule (.378 winning percentage).
Williams hasn’t been the key to the Bears’ recent winning streak. He completed only 53.2% of his passes over his last five games while gaining only 6.3 yards per pass attempt. He minimized the turnovers (2) over this span with eight passing touchdowns. His value in the run game (26/176/1 – 6.8 yards per carry) helped move the chains and avoid sacks.
In my projections this week, Williams is the 24th-ranked quarterback in fantasy points (14.50) in four-point passing touchdown formats. He has posted similar failures this year in four other road games (14.90, 15.65, 12.25, and 12.00).
The Packers rank sixth in quarterback defense (206.00 fantasy points), with them gaining only 6.2 yards per pass attempt. Offenses have attacked Green Bay via the run over the last five weeks (33/163/2, 34/111/0, 38/147/3, 20/93, and 39/119/1), leading the Packers to face only 121 passes over this span. Their defense picked up their pass rush in their last two matchups (eight sacks). Green Bay allowed fewer than 15.25 fantasy points to quarterbacks in four of their past five matchups.
Williams has received weapons, and the Packers have to be concerned with Chicago’s run game. Unfortunately, the Bears’ winning streak comes to an end, highlighted by dull stats from their starting quarterback.
DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers
After two productive games (5/126/1 and 4/95/1) at home, the fantasy market had high hopes for Metcalf in 2025 and the Steelers’ passing attack. He rolls into Week 14 with five consecutive losing days (2/6, 3/35, 5/49, 5/22, and 3/32) in receiving stats, but Metcalf did score in Week 12 on a lateral pass.
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Baltimore sits 22nd in wide receiver defense (148/1,862/13 on 254 targets), which should invite an upside day for Metcalf.
Unfortunately, Pittsburgh’s wide receiver gained fewer than 85 receiving yards in their previous five matchups (8/66, 7/84, 7/71, 10/79, and 3/32) while scoring only once. The Steelers’ receivers rank 31st in catches (87) and receiving yards (1,114), with the lowest targets (146) in the NFL.
As talented as Metcalf is, he’s averaging only 6.25 targets in Pittsburgh’s offense with a 60% catch rate. He scored four of his six touchdowns over his first five games.
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