Republicans’ Chances of Flipping New Hampshire Senate Seat—New Poll

Republicans hoping to flip New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate seat in 2026 face an uphill climb, according to a new NHJournal/Praecones Analytica poll showing Democratic Representative Chris Pappas ahead in hypothetical matchups—though significant numbers of undecided voters keep the race far from settled.

The survey of 603 registered voters, conducted just after Christmas, finds Pappas leading former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown 46–28 percent and former New Hampshire Senator John E. Sununu 42–36 percent, with roughly a quarter of respondents undecided.

While Democrats hold an 11-point edge on the generic congressional ballot and President Donald Trump’s approval has plunged to 32 percent in New Hampshire, state-level dynamics remain competitive: Governor Kelly Ayotte’s approval is still positive, and party preference for control of Concord is tied. With affordability topping voter concerns and no major Democrat yet entering the governor’s race, the poll suggests Republicans retain a narrow path—if they can localize contests and distance themselves from Trump’s national drag.

This is a developing news story. Updates to follow.