The likelihood that U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi will be the first individual to leave President Donald Trump’s Cabinet has surged, surpassing Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem whose chances of departing have also recently been high, according to prediction markets.
Bondi has faced pressure over the government’s handling of files associated with Jeffrey Epstein, a convicted sex offender who died in a New York jail in 2019 while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges. On Wednesday, she was questioned by the House Judiciary Committee about the matter in an oversight hearing on Capitol Hill.
Since then, according to prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, her chances of leaving Trump’s cabinet have increased.
As per Kalshi, on February 11 she had a 12 percent chance of being the first to leave the cabinet. By February 12 her odds had increased to 22 percent.
Meanwhile, Polymarket said she had a 52 percent chance of leaving the cabinet. This is a seven percent increase from February 11 when her chances stood at 45 percent.
Noem, on the other hand, has faced pressure of her own over the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) handling of the death of two U.S. citizens at the hands of federal agents.
Alex Pretti, an ICU nurse, was shot dead by a federal immigration agent in Minneapolis in January during a federal immigration enforcement operation. His killing was the second fatal shooting of a U.S. citizen by a federal immigration officer in Minneapolis that month, following the January 7 death of Renee Good, who was killed by an ICE agent during another enforcement action.
Illinois Democratic Representative Robin Kelly formally introduced three articles of impeachment against Noem on January 14, accusing her of obstruction of Congress, violation of public trust and self-dealing.
Kalshi indicates she has a 16 percent chance of leaving the Cabinet first while Polymarket puts her chances at 49 percent.
For either to leave the Cabinet they would either have to resign, be impeached and convicted by Congress, or fired by Trump. None seem likely given the Republican Party’s majorities in both chambers of Congress and Trump’s support of the two Cabinet members.
This is a developing story. More to follow.
