Prediction markets are giving Democrats a nearly 40 percent chance of flipping a Texas Senate seat, rising early Wednesday after state Representative James Talarico won the party’s primary to run for GOP Senator John Cornyn’s seat.
Why It Matters
Talarico topped Representative Jasmine Crockett in the first high-profile Democratic primary of the 2026 cycle, as the party chases midterm wins in an attempt to take back control of the House and Senate in November.
Democrats have long sought to make inroads in Texas, which has not elected a Democratic Senator since 1988 and has backed the Republican for president in every election since 1980. Talarico hopes to end the drought when he faces off against the winner of the Republican primary, which is heading to a runoff after Cornyn, who was first elected in 2002, and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton failed to get 50 percent of the vote to top the ticket.
Democrats face a difficult map to take control back in the Senate, needing to hold all their seats and flip four Republican seats. North Carolina and Maine are crucial targets for the party, but Texas has emerged along with Ohio, Florida, Iowa and Alaska as other targets.
What To Know
Talarico won around 53 percent of the vote, compared to Crockett’s 46 percent, after 92 percent of the vote was counted, according to the Associated Press, which called the race early Wednesday morning.
Following the results, bettors on two of the most popular prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, have given Democrats a nearly 40 percent chance of flipping the Republican Senate seat.
Polymarket puts Democrats odds at 39 percent, with Republicans’ chances of keeping the seat at 62 percent. The bet currently has around $80,000 in volume.
Kalshi, which has a larger volume bet with over $1.1 million, puts Democrats odds at 38 percent and Republicans at 62 percent. That is a notable shift, as just ahead of the primary on March 3, Democrats were at 34.7 percent and Republicans were at 65 percent.
Prediction market odds are likely to keep shifting as more bettors weigh in and new developments emerge. Betting odds reveal trader sentiment about current events, but they may not necessarily be predictive.
Talarico, a Texas state lawmaker first elected in 2018 and viewed as a rising Democrat, focused his primary campaign on economic populism and broad voter appeal. His campaign reported raising more than $21 million through last week. It said it brought in $2.5 million in the 24 hours after late-night host Stephen Colbert canceled a planned interview, a move that helped draw national attention to the race.
What People Are Saying
Representative Jasmine Crockett said in an X post Wednesday: “This morning I called James and congratulated him on becoming the Senate nominee. Texas is primed to turn blue and we must remain united because this is bigger than any one person. This is about the future of all 30 million Texans and getting America back on track. With the primary behind us, Democrats must rally around our nominees and win. I’m committed to doing my part and will continue working to elect democrats up and down the ballot.”
State Representative James Talarico said in an X post Wednesday morning: “We’re about to take back Texas.”
What Happens Next
The Democratic nominee will now advance to the November general election, where Republicans remain heavily favored.
Longtime Senator Lloyd Bentsen was the last Democrat elected to the upper chamber in the state. The last time a Democrat won a statewide election in the state was in 1994.
