Andrew Cuomo’s Chances of Beating Zohran Mamdani Soar

Andrew Cuomo’s political comeback may be closer than ever, as new momentum builds behind the former governor’s bid for New York mayor.

Why It Matters

In previous days, some polls showed rival candidate Zohran Mamdani ahead of Cuomo for the first time.

But predictor Polymarket now has Cuomo well ahead of his rival.

A primary win for Cuomo, 67, would mark a dramatic political comeback, just four years after he resigned as New York governor in 2021 amid the threat of impeachment over sexual misconduct allegations, which he has consistently denied. No charges relating to the allegations have ever been brought against him.

What To Know

Polymarket shows that Cuomo now has a 73-percent chance of winning the New York mayor Democratic primary. Meanwhile, Mamdani has a 25-percent chance.

Cuomo’s chances have shot up in the past few days after the gap between him and Mamdani narrowed to just 15 points on June 12, when Mamdani’s chances of winning stood at 42 percent to Cuomo’s 57 percent.

Since then, Cuomo’s chances of winning have bounced back. However, they are still smaller than they were before New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Mamdani in early June.

The endorsement gave Mamdani a boost to his campaign, with momentum building ever since. Before that, his odds of winning stood at just 6 percent at the end of May, while Cuomo had a 93-percent chance.

Cuomo’s odds of winning the primary have surged in recent days, according to prediction market Polymarket, which now gives the former governor a 73-percent chance of victory compared to 25 percent for Assemblymember Mamdani.

While not traditional polling or statistical modeling, Polymarket reflects real-money wagers on political outcomes, and gained credibility for its accuracy during the 2024 election cycle.

The prediction comes after a recent poll showed Mamdani, 33, in the lead over Cuomo for the first time.

The poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling for Democrat Justin Brannan’s city comptroller campaign on June 6 and 7 among 573 likely voters, and reviewed by Politico, showed Mamdani beating Cuomo (35 to 31 percent)—a difference that is narrowly within the 4.1 percent margin of error.

Brannan, who represents parts of southern Brooklyn in the City Council, and Mamdani were both endorsed by the New York Working Families Party.

City Comptroller Brad Lander, despite his citywide office and significant campaign spending, received just 9 percent support in the survey. Former Comptroller Scott Stringer polled at 5 percent, while City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams came in at 4 percent, despite endorsements from Attorney General Letitia James and labor powerhouse District Council 37.

The Democratic primary will use ranked-choice voting, allowing voters to choose up to five candidates.

Since joining the race on March 1 to challenge current New York City Mayor Eric Adams—who is seeking reelection as an independent—Cuomo has consistently led in most public polls.

A Cuomo internal poll conducted by Expedition Strategies and shared with Politico last week showed him leading Mamdani by 12 points (56 to 44 percent) after eight rounds of ranked-choice tabulations. That poll, which surveyed 600 likely mayoral primary voters from June 3-7, was conducted during the same period as a Public Policy Polling survey that showed Mamdani in the lead.

Another survey by the independent Honan Strategy Group, conducted from June 5–9, with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2.76 percentage points, found Cuomo ahead with 38 percent support, while Mamdani trailed at 22 percent. A mid-May 2025 SurveyUSA poll also showed Cuomo leading the Democratic field with 43 percent support, far ahead of Mamdani’s 11 percent.

However, more recent polling suggests Mamdani is closing the gap. A Data for Progress poll, commissioned by a super PAC backing Mamdani, surveyed 819 likely Democratic primary voters between May 30 and June 4. It found Mamdani just 2 points behind Cuomo on the final ranked-choice ballot. That same poll showed Mamdani with a higher favorability rating—58 percent compared to Cuomo’s 48 percent.

Mamdani’s momentum has been fueled by social media and grassroots organizing. His campaign videos—often viral—promote progressive policies such as free public buses, city-run grocery stores, and a rent freeze on rent-regulated apartments across the city.

As Mamdani gains ground, Cuomo has stepped up his attacks, branding his opponent as inexperienced.

At a debate last week, Cuomo said Mamdani “has never done anything,” criticizing him for having only passed three bills in the State Assembly—a line he also used in the first Democratic primary debate. Cuomo said it would be reckless to elect someone with so little experience.

But Mamdani responded: “I have never had to resign in disgrace…I have never hounded the 13 women who credibly accused me of sexual harassment. I have never sued for their gynecological records. And I have never done those things because I am not you, Mr. Cuomo.”

This weekend, The New York Times dealt a blow to Mamdani’s campaign, endorsing Cuomo—albeit reluctantly.

“As for Mr. Cuomo, we have serious objections to his ethics and conduct, even if he would be better for New York’s future than Mr. Mamdani,” the board wrote.

They added: “Mr. Mamdani would also bring less relevant experience than perhaps any mayor in New York history. He has never run a government department or private organization of any size. As a state legislator, he has struggled to execute his own agenda,” the board wrote.

“We do not believe that Mr. Mamdani deserves a spot on New Yorkers’ ballots.”

What People Are Saying

Zohran Mamdani told The New York Times last week: “There are far too many New Yorkers who do not know if they will be able to call themselves that next year, who do not know if they will be able to afford their rent, or their child care, their groceries, or even their MetroCard.

“This is a city that we want to ensure does not become a museum or a relic of the working-class people who built it, but rather a living, breathing testament to the continuation of that story.”

Andrew Cuomo told the Times earlier this month when asked what the most pressing issue is for New Yorkers: “Lack of affordable housing, deterioration of quality of life—they all stem from poor management. Then the existential threat is Trump.”

What Happens Next

Early voting in the June 24 primary began on Saturday, while the general election for mayor is on November 4, 2025.