Beryl Update: Model Shows That Storm Could Impact a Dozen States

Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to hit a dozen states after it makes landfall in Texas early Monday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) latest model.

Beryl, which has fluctuated between different categories on the hurricane scale due to rapid intensification, is now categorized as a tropical storm with 65 mile per hour maximum sustained winds and even higher gusts. The NHC, which is part of the National Weather Service (NWS), warned Sunday afternoon that “Beryl is expected to become a hurricane before landfall.”

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Previously, Beryl reached Category 5 hurricane status, with winds reaching 165 mph, making it the earliest Category 5 storm in the Atlantic. It previously passed through the Caribbean Islands, causing at least 11 deaths, according to the Associated Press.

The NHC’s forecast model shows that after making landfall in Texas, Beryl could potentially impact a dozen states as it moves through the Midwest.

The forecast cone, which is the “probable path of the storm center” indicates that Beryl could travel northeast from Texas, first passing through the southeast corner of Oklahoma and the northeast part of Louisiana before traveling solidly as a tropical depression through Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, and Kentucky. A tropical depression, which is how Beryl initially began, is defined as a cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

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The NHC 5 p.m. ET forecast predicts Beryl to hit Arkansas early Tuesday and pass through by Wednesday. The model then predicts by midday Thursday, the tropical depression will travel through Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, and possibly the tip of West Virginia.

new beryl
A cone forecast of Tropical Storm Beryl created by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at 5 p.m. ET on Sunday shows the storm could impact a dozen states after making landfall in Texas.

National Weather Service

The storm doesn’t seem to stop in the U.S.; it continues to Canada, showing the possibility of reaching Toronto and Ottawa.

The NWS’ map header notes “hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone,” potentially widening the range of Beryl’s effects. Flash flooding and heavy rains are predicted along the storm’s path, as well as storm surge’s along the Gulf Coast.

Newsweek reached out via email to the NHC for comment on Sunday afternoon.

As of Sunday afternoon, Beryl is 130 miles southeast of Matagorda, Texas, and 135 miles southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas. It is moving at 12 mph.

“Strengthening is expected, and Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane again tonight. Additional strengthening is expected before Beryl reaches the Texas coast early Monday,” the NHC’s latest advisory reads.

On Sunday, Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick said in a press conference with Texas Division of Emergency Management that Beryl “will be a deadly storm for people directly on that path.” He is serving as the acting governor while Governor Greg Abbott is on a business trip to Asia and will remain in this position until July 12.

In his speech, he highlighted that he has declared “120 Texan counties in the disaster area.” He urged residences to listen to local forecast and authorities for the most updated news.

Voluntary evacuation orders are in place in someTexas Gulf towns as officials warn of the storm’s landfall, but Patrick noted that most of the roads appear “green,” meaning not many people are driving on them. He warned against people being on the roads tomorrow due to the severe weather.