Best Lakers-Timberwolves Player Props, ATS Bets: Wolves Slight Favorites

The Western Conference first-round series between the Lakers (3) and Timberwolves (6) heats up this evening, as oddsmakers expect this crucial Game 3 showdown to come down to the wire.

After the Wolves opened the series with a statement win, 117-95, in Game 1, the Lakers bounced back in Game 2, jumping out to a 58-43 lead en route to a 94-85 victory.

Minnesota got strong performances from both Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle in Games 1 and 2. But it will need Jaden McDaniels and their other complementary pieces to play the way they did in Game 1, not Game 2, to knock off LeBron James, Luka Doncic and the Lakers.

Despite two excellent nights by Doncic, LA has not been able to hit its stride offensively. The Lakers’ regular season offensive rating was 115.9, but their ORTG was below 110 in both Games 1 and 2. Minnesota’s was an astounding 134.8 in Game 1, but that number plummeted to 96.7 in Game 2.

Lakers vs. Timberwolves Game 3 Betting Odds

How to Watch Lakers vs. Timberwolves

• Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. ET
• Channel: ESPN

Lakers vs. Timberwolves Series Winner Odds

• DraftKings: LAL -115; MIN -105
• FanDuel: LAL -118; MIN +100

Best Lakers vs. Timberwolves Player Props

Luka Doncic Over 39.5 Pts + Assists (+118, FanDuel) — 0.5 units

How high will Luka’s points + assist line have to get before it makes sense to stay away?

Unfortunately, oddsmakers have already ratched this line up to that level. Even if you’re bullish on Doncic’s P+A tonight (as we are), Over 37.5 P+A at -120 or shorter is easy to resist.

Doncic went over 35.5 P+A the hard way in Game 1, with 37 points and one assist (38 P+A) on a night when his team finished with just 95 points. He added 31 points and nine dimes (40 P+A) in Game 2.

The fact that Doncic finished Game 2 with 30-plus points despite a 2-for-8 night from outside and managed to get his teammates involved while taking 20 shots has to have Wolves fans fearing this series could turn into a repeat of last year’s Western Conference Finals.

More importantly, for our purposes here, his showing in Game 2 makes him a tempting play at plus-money tonight.

Doncic has not only notched 38 and 40 P+A, respectively, in Games 1 and 2, but he did so in Game 1 despite not scoring a point over the final 10 minutes. The Lakers faded down the stretch in that one, losing 117-95 after entering the fourth quarter down 94-78.

Doncic averaged 37.3 P+A in the final 12 games of the regular season that he played alongside LeBron James, and he’d have probably recorded 40 P+A in both Games 1 and 2 if the former hadn’t gotten out of hand in the fourth quarter.

Also worth noting, again: in five Dallas-Minnesota games last year in the Western Conference Finals, here’s how Doncic did as a scorer and passer (in case his series averages of 32.4 ppg and 8.2 apg don’t speak for themselves):

• Game 1: 33 points, 8 assists (over 39.5? )
• Game 2: 32 points, 13 assists (over 39.5? )
• Game 3: 33 points, 5 assists (over 39.5? )
• Game 4: 28 points, 10 assists (over 39.5?
• Game 5: 36 points, 5 assists (over 39.5? )

This price isn’t terribly juicy, hence the recommendation to wager a half-unit instead of a full unit.

Still, we expect the exact logic we offered before Game 1 — “the Wolves are going to have to either A) hope Jaden McDaniels can cover Doncic much better than he did in the playoffs a year ago and/or B) send help” — to continue to prove spot-on.

Lakers vs. Timberwolves Game 3 Prediction

While it’s hard to see anything other than another big night from Doncic, the outcome of tonight’s game feels hard to predict. The Wolves had one outstanding offensive night and one awful one in LA. The Lakers, on the other hand, have leaned on Doncic and defense — with wildly varying degrees of success — so far in this series.

I’d love to say something more profound here than, “this feels like a coin flip.” For better or worse, though, that pretty much sums it up. And FWIW, the ESPN Analytics Matchup Predictor and I couldn’t be more aligned. The latter gives the Lakers a 49.8 percent chance to win the and the Wolves a 50.2 percent chance tonight.

With that in mind, I’ll go with the road dogs to cover in a game that could be decided by who has the ball last.

Two other small bets worth placing:

• A) the under, even at the low total of 208. Remember, both Games 1 and 2 were played at a snail’s pace of less than 90 possessions per 48 minutes.
• B) the Wolves to cover the first-half spread. Coming off a loss, in front of a raucous crowd, expect a hot start by Edwards and Co.

Lakers vs. Timberwolves Best Bets:

• Lakers +3 (-110 at DraftKings) — 0.5 units
• Timberwolves 1H spread -1.5 (-112 at DK) — 0.5 units
• Under 208 (-110 at FanDuel) — 0.25 units

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