After cruising past the Grizzlies in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs, the Thunder (1) face a much trickier test vs. the Nuggets (4) in the Western Conference Semifinals.
Despite Denver’s 50-win regular season, the presence of three-time MVP Nikola Jokic and plenty of championship experience throughout the lineup, OKC is a massive favorite to not only win Game 1, but advance to the conference finals.
The Thunder are so heavily favored that at DraftKings, this series is +140 to go over 5.5 total games and -170 to go under 5.5 total games. That’s an implied probability of just under 63 percent that this will be either a four-game sweep or a gentleman’s sweep.
Below is a look at the schedule for Nuggets vs. Thunder:
- Game 1: May 5
- Game 2: May 7
- Game 3: May 9
- Game 4: May 11
- Game 5: May 13
- Game 6: May 15
- Game 7: May 18
Nuggets vs. Thunder Series Winner Odds
- DraftKings: DEN +500; OKC -700
- FanDuel: DEN +610; OKC -900
Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 1 Betting Odds
|
DK |
FD |
bet365 |
| DEN spread |
+9.5 (-110) |
+10 (-110) |
+10 (-110) |
| OKC spread |
-9.5 (-110) |
-10 (-110) |
-10 (-110) |
| DEN ML |
+330 |
+380 |
+350 |
| OKC ML |
-425 |
-490 |
-450 |
| Total |
227 (o-110; u-110) |
227 (o-110; u-110) |
227 (o-110; u-110) |
How to Watch Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 1
- Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Channel: TNT/truTV/Max
Best Nuggets vs. Thunder Player Props
Isaiah Hartenstein 10+ Rebounds (+125 at bet365) — 1 unit
First of all, there’s a ton of value here at +125, as this prop is listed at even money at FanDuel and +110 at DraftKings as of 3 p.m. ET on Monday afternoon.
Hartenstein averaged 10.7 rebounds in an average of 27.9 minutes per game in the regular season.
Given how much weight Chet Holmgren gives up to Jokic, expect Hartenstein to play 30-plus minutes per game in this series, as OKC does not have any bigs to throw at Jokic besides Holmgren and Hartenstein.
Another reason to like Hartenstein to pile up the boards tonight is the success the Clippers’ Ivica Zubac had on this front in the first-round series between the Clippers and Nuggets.
Zubac and Hartenstein are similarly built (Zubac is listed at 7-foot, 240 pounds, while Hartenstein is listed at 7-foot, 255 pounds) and the former averaged 10.1 rebounds per game vs. Jokic and the Nuggets. He also pulled down at least 12 boards four times in that seven-game series.
There are plenty of potent scorers and passers in this game, but Hartenstein to finish with double-digit boards feels like as good a prop bet as any in this matchup tonight. That’s especially true given the fatigue factor with Denver coming off a Game 7 on Saturday night.
OKC, on the other hand, has had nine days of rest after wrapping up its first-round sweep of Memphis on Saturday, April 26.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 1 Pick, Best Bets
Jokic and the Nuggets played well too against Oklahoma City in the regular season for me to take the Thunder to cruise tonight. The single biggest reason to like the Nuggets to at least keep this game close is the matchup between Jokic and Thunder centers Holmgren and Hartenstein.
Jokic averaged 24.5 points, 15.8 rebounds and 11.5 assists per game in four regular-season matchups vs. the Thunder. On the surface, there’s little reason to expect anything other than a huge night from the three-time MVP in Game 1. He finished the final DEN-OKC regular-season matchup this year (March 10) with 35 points, 18 rebounds and eight assists.
Jokic shot 15-for-20 from the field in that game (14-for-18 on 2 pointers and 1-for-2 from outside). That includes 8-for-9 field goal shooting — with three assists — when matched up against Hartenstein, according to NBA.com.
So, let’s go with the well-rested Thunder to start out hot and cover the first-half spread, but the Nuggets to cover for the game as 9.5-point dogs.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 1 Best Bets:
- Thunder 1H -5.5 (-108 at DraftKings) — 0.5 units
- Nuggets +10 (-110 at FanDuel) — 0.5 units
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