Betting Markets Update: Donald Trump Cabinet Picks Chances of Confirmation

The betting odds for President-elect Donald Trump’s more controversial Cabinet nominees have painted an unfavorable picture of their chance to succeed in light of former Representative Matt Gaetz’s failure to get support from the U.S. Senate for his confirmation.

Betting odds have taken on a renewed focus after media outlets noticed how they served as an early indicator that Trump was on his way to victory on Election Day against Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris.

The odds had initially dropped significantly in the days ahead of the election, but just 24 hours before people headed out to cast their ballot, odds rose sharply, with crypto betting outlet Polymarket noting a 58 percent chance of Trump winning a second term.

Polymarket is partially funded by Peter Thiel, a Silicon Valley billionaire and major Republican donor who backed Trump and has helped promote Vice President-elect JD Vance.

Those odds have continued to serve as a decent indicator of overall attitudes and analysis, such as when the odds for Gaetz securing the post of U.S. attorney general peaked at 45 percent but dropped to around 21 percent just one day before he withdrew his name for consideration in the face of a second sexual misconduct allegation and mounting pressure. Gaetz, a Florida Republican, denies the allegations.

If those trends indicate some reliability for betting odds as an indicator, then Pete Hegseth, Trump’s secretary of defense pick, should be concerned as his odds continue to shrink amid his own allegations of sexual assault.

Hegseth’s nomination already faced stiff opposition due to his perceived lack of qualifications, with many critics focusing more on his time as a Fox News host over his time as an Army National Guard. However, the revelation of a sexual assault allegation from 2017 in which he later paid the accuser over fears of losing his job.

Hegseth has vigorously denied the allegations, insisting that the encounter was consensual and that he worried the allegation alone, even if false, would cost him his job.

The betting odds have not found his defense favorable, and possibly those placing bets think that Gaetz backing out weakens the overall sense that Trump will get his appointments, no matter how problematic. As such, Hegseth saw his odds drop from 74 percent to 52 percent by Friday, and then dropped again to 47 percent, though by Saturday they had perked back up to 57 percent.

Newsweek has reached out to the Trump transition team by email for comment on Saturday afternoon.

Former Democratic Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard faces her own bad news spiral as high-profile Republicans such as Nikki Haley, Trump’s former United Nations ambassador, have come out and opposed her nomination as the director of national intelligence, which oversees 18 intelligence community agencies, such as the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and National Security Agency (NSA).

Haley slammed Gabbard for her 2017 visit and “photo-op” with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, calling the decision “disgusting.” She referred to her own speeches at the U.N. in which she attacked al-Assad and showed pictures of dead children “killed by chemical attacks.”

“For her to say that Assad was not behind that—literally, everything she said about that were Russian talking points. Every bit of that. That was Russian propaganda,” Haley said.

Gabbard frequently criticized Trump’s foreign policy, including on ending the Iran nuclear deal. Since leaving office, Gabbard joined the Republican Party and endorsed Trump’s 2024 campaign.

Earlier this week, Gabbard had an 81 percent chance of securing her nomination, according to Polymarket, but those odds dropped to 59 percent on Friday, though, again, she saw an uptick to around 64 percent on Saturday.

When one commenter on Polymarket inquired about the “hard” crash Gabbard has seen in recent days, others argued that Republicans care more about national security than other issues, which could end up making it too difficult for Gabbard to succeed.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who Trump has selected to run the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), has seen little movement in either positive or negative directions. Kennedy Jr. remains at roughly 70 percent likely to get his post, according to Polymarket, having peaked at 80 percent chance last week and hitting a low of 68 percent on Friday this week.

Other nominees remain above 90 percent, including North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum for secretary of the interior, former Representative Sean Duffy for transportation secretary, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem for director of Homeland Security and former Representative Lee Zeldin for head of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

The odds have not yet accounted for a slew of new nominations Trump announced on Friday to close out the week, including Russell Thurlow Vought, a key Project 2025 architect, as the director of Management and Budget (OMB). Vought had served in Trump’s first administration, which the president-elect highlighted in his announcement.