Biden Must Say No to Another Middle East War | Opinion

Following Israel’s invasion of Lebanon and the subsequent strikes into Israel from Hezbollah and Iran, the Middle East is at the brink of region-wide war, with a high likelihood of direct U.S. involvement. President Joe Biden, warning that “all-out war is possible,” is sending additional troops to the Middle East.

This is a mistake. The United States has no interest in the Middle East that warrants another war there. Moreover, U.S. Middle East policy has helped lead to the current precipice, to the detriment of regional stability and American interests. If Washington truly wishes to pull the Middle East—and the United States—back from the brink of war, now is the time to prove it with real policy change.

Following Hamas’ terror attack in Israel on October 7 of last year, Israel’s war in Gaza has pushed the Middle East to the brink of region-wide war.

After nearly a year, Israel’s military campaign has failed to achieve its two principal objectives: the total elimination of Hamas, and the return of the hostages seized during Hamas’ attack on October 7. American officials believe Israel has accomplished all it can militarily in Gaza, while the Israeli defense establishment views the two main objectives of the war as mutually incompatible.

Nevertheless, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expanded the war to Lebanon.

There, too, Israel appears unlikely to reach its stated goals of returning Israelis to their homes in the north or deterring Hezbollah. Instead, the move seems more likely to produce a regional war involving Iran and, possibly, the United States.

Over the past year, Israel’s behavior has suggested that it was willing to risk, if not deliberately provoke, escalation to include Iran. Israel killed Hamas leader—and ceasefire negotiator—Ismail Haniyeh inside Tehran in July. Iran responded with a barrage of missiles and drones that was largely choreographed beforehand and had minimal effect on Israel.

More recently, Israel launched a wave of airstrikes throughout Lebanon, killing more than 1,000 people and displacing more than a million. The strikes also killed Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime head of Hezbollah. Now, Netanyahu is proceeding with a growing ground invasion of Lebanon, and is reportedly considering direct attacks on Iran.

There is precedent of Israel seeking war between the United States and Iran. The past five U.S. presidential administrations, going back almost three decades, have all faced pressure from Netanyahu to go to war with Iran. In April, President Biden himself expressed fears privately that Netanyahu is trying to drag the United States into a broader regional conflict.

Lebanon represents a particularly dangerous flashpoint due to the high potential for region-wide escalation that may include U.S. forces. U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Charles Q. Brown warned this summer that such a conflict could well pull in both Iran and the United States, and even if it remained limited to Hezbollah, there were limits to the amount of protection the U.S. military could provide Israel.

Despite delusions to the contrary, the United States remains waist-deep in the Middle East. In Iraq and Syria, U.S. troops are extremely vulnerable, having been attacked more than 170 times since October 2023. In Yemen, the United States has spent over a billion dollars fighting an open-ended military campaign against the Houthi movement, one that U.S. Navy officials describe as the most intense running sea battle the United States has fought since World War II. After killing Nasrallah, Israel requested the United States take steps to deter an Iranian response.

For its part, the Biden administration continues to issue plaintive, anonymous leaks to the press conveying Biden’s growing “frustration” with Netanyahu. Reports of Washington “losing trust” in the Israeli government or feeling “hoodwinked” by Netanyahu are now commonplace.

But this rhetoric amounts to no more than did previous strategic leaks of the president’s displeasure with the prime minister: empty words designed to deflect growing domestic criticism. Just days after Israel began escalating in Lebanon, the United States approved an additional $8.7 billion in military aid for Israel. While Biden says he opposes escalation, why would Netanyahu defer to U.S. prerogatives if the money and arms keep flowing and the Americans continue helping defend his country?

U.S. Middle East policy has spun out of control over the past year. As it became clearer and clearer that Netanyahu welcomed escalation, the Biden administration should have stopped subsidizing Israeli policy and made clear American troops would not follow Netanyahu’s lead. This may be the last chance for them to do so.

Jon Hoffman is a research fellow at the Cato Institute. Justin Logan is director of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute.

The views expressed in this article are the writers’ own.