The Buffalo Bills on Thursday, March 5 did what they had to do to procure recent MVP quarterback Josh Allen a No. 1 target in the wide receiver room — or, at least, that’s what they thought.
Bill Barnwell of ESPN, however, isn’t so sure.
Barnwell took a deep dive into the trade for Chicago Bears wideout DJ Moore from the perspectives of both NFL teams involved. Chicago and general manager Ryan Poles, Barnwell contended, made out like gangbusters. But Brandon Beane and the Bills made a couple of potentially catastrophic mistakes in Moore’s acquisition.
“[Beane] has sent Buffalo’s second-round pick to the Bears to get this deal done, and although the Bills are getting a fifth-rounder back, the picks cancel out to produce a pretty significant amount of draft capital for a player coming off a 682-yard season,” Barnwell wrote. “It sure seems that the Bills are buying high in this trade for Moore.”
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Barnwell contended that Moore is worth roughly a fifth-round pick in a vacuum at this stage in his career — heading into his ninth season, which he will play at age 29 — and coming off the campaign he produced in 2025 (). But based on the deal, which flipped Moore and a fifth-rounder to Buffalo for the No. 60 overall pick in Round 2, the Bills essentially paid a mid-third-round value for the WR.
That, in and of itself, isn’t necessarily so bad. Barnwell’s projection on Moore could be wrong. He has put up four 1,000-yard seasons and come close twice more, despite typically playing with bad or below-average quarterbacks. Bears head coach Ben Johnson didn’t build the offense to Moore’s strong suits in his first year at the helm, and thus Moore’s production dipped — and by extension, so did his immediate trade value.
But the bigger potential mistake on the part of Beane and the Bills revolves around the guarantees Buffalo made with regards to Moore’s $110 million contract, which spans four years and kicks in this season.
“Just by taking on Moore’s existing contract, the Bills are committing to paying the former first-round pick $24.5 million in 2026 and, barring something truly unexpected, $24.5 million more in 2027,” Barnwell continued. “What’s really shocking, though, is that Beane didn’t think that was enough.”
“As part of this deal, the Bills also guaranteed $15.5 million of Moore’s $23.5 million base salary in 2028, which essentially locks them into paying Moore that full base salary two years down the line,” Barnwell added. “In other words, Buffalo is either going to pay Moore $55.5 million for one year, $64.5 million for two years or $73.5 million over the next three years, with the latter scenario being the most likely.”
Moore’s value may well prove stronger than a fifth-rounder in 2026, or even than the mid-third-rounder that the Bills essentially paid to acquire him, per Barnwell’s calculations. But will Moore prove worth the annual average salary he will earn over the next one-three years based on what Buffalo has guaranteed him?
Perhaps, but that is a much higher bar to clear.
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