CBB Conference Tournament Futures: How to Bet Conference Championship Week

While Selection Sunday is still a week away, must-see college basketball action starts this week with major-conference tournaments across the country.

For the top contenders to cut down the nets at the Final Four, a loss this week will just be a speedbump, but a number of teams on the bubble are playing to keep their seasons alive.

Last year was a great example of the unpredictability of this outstanding annual pre-March Madness appetizer.

Eventual national champ UConn cruised to the Big East conference title, but the Huskies were the only 1-seed who won a high-profile conference tourney. In 2024, the winners of the Big Ten (2-seed Illinois), SEC (4-seed Auburn) and Big 12 (2-seed Iowa State) all prevented their league’s regular-season champ from taking home two trophies (though none of those three went on Cinderella runs, by any means).

But in the Pac-12 (4-seed Oregon) and ACC (10-seed NC State), a pair of true long shots stunned everyone in those leagues to capture automatic bids to the Big Dance.

Turning the page to what lies ahead between now and Selection Sunday, here are the conference tournament futures odds for the top teams in the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC and Big East.

We’ll also take an early stab at the best bet and the best longshot in each league.

SEC Conference Tourney Odds, Best Bets

• When: Wednesday-Sunday
• How to watch title game: Sunday, 12 p.m. ET (ESPN)
• Where: Bridgestone Arena (Nashville)

SEC Conference Tournament Outrights

SEC Tournament Best Bet: Florida

Best odds: +320 (FanDuel)

It’s hard to bet against regular-season champ Auburn. That being said, going with the favorite in a league this deep isn’t a great idea. The Tigers are also coming off back-to-back losses to Texas A&M and Alabama that showed that Johni Broome and Co. can be beat.

The Gators won 9-of-10 down the stretch in SEC play, with victories over Auburn, Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Alabama.

Florida boasts imposing size and depth alongside a trio of high-scoring guards. The way this team rebounds — its four bigs combined for 28 rebounds (11 offensive) in last week’s win over Bama — could make the difference in a tournament featuring a number of teams with a legit shot to cut down the nets next Sunday.

SEC Tournament Best Longshot Bet: Kentucky

Best odds: +3000 (FanDuel)

There are a number of good options in the insanely deep SEC with long, tempting odds, but Kentucky stands out here, especially at +3000. The ‘Cats are considerably shorter than that at every other sportsbook, and the fact they’re shorter than 20-to-1 at DraftKings and Caesars is a big reason they’re worth a flier here.

Kentucky also boasts a potent offense led by several dangerous shooters, even after leading scorer Jaxson Robinson’s unfortunate season-ending injury. In Saturday’s road win over Missouri, Koby Brea, Andrew Carr, Amari Williams and Otega Oweh all scored at least 14 points, and a total of six UK players combined to knock down 11 3-pointers.

Big 12 Conference Tourney Odds, Best Bets

• When: Tuesday-Saturday
• How to watch title game: Saturday, 6 p.m. ET (ESPN)
• Where: T-Mobile Center (Kansas City, MO)

Big 12 Conference Tournament Outrights

Big 12 Tournament Best Bet: Houston

Best odds: +100 (FanDuel)

The Cougars owned the Big 12 during the regular season, going 19-1 in league play to wrap up a first-place finish early.

Normally, I wouldn’t recommend taking a conference favorite. But there’s value in taking Houston at even money, especially since it’s currently priced at -120 or shorter at every other sportsbook.

The biggest reason to take the Cougars, however, is how well they play defense.

This veteran roster led by guards LJ Cryer and Emanuel Sharp and big man J’Wan Roberts is seeking redemption after injuries prevented it from winning the conference tournament or making it beyond the Sweet 16 a year ago. This is by no means the only team in this league capable of winning this thing, but it’s the one I trust the most.

Big 12 Tournament Best Longshot Bet: Texas Tech

Best odds: +440 (FanDuel)

Pinpointing just one Texas Tech, Iowa State, Arizona, Kansas and BYU as the best longshot is tricky, as all five are highly rated — No. 21 or better — according to respected advanced metrics sites Kenpom.com and Bart Torvik.

We’ll go with the only team this league that managed to beat Houston. That would be the Red Raiders, who stunned the Cougars in Houston, but lost the rematch in Lubbock on February 24. In JT Toppin, TT arguably boasts the best player in the league.

The former New Mexico star averaged over 18 points and 9 rebounds per game this year. The fact that the Red Raiders beat Houston on the road despite him playing only four scoreless minutes due to an early ejection makes them a great bet.

Big Ten Conference Tourney Odds, Best Bets

• When: Wednesday-Sunday
• How to watch title game: Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+)
• Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse (Indianapolis)

Big Ten Conference Tournament Outrights

Big Ten Tournament Best Bet: UCLA

Best odds: +700 (FanDuel)

The table above shows that while Michigan State has the shortest odds, it’s far from a “clear favorite” in what is easily the most wide-open of the five major conference tourneys.

All eight schools listed above went 12-8 or better in the Big Ten. The one that stands out to me is UCLA, which finished strong after a rough start (this team was just 2-4 after its first six conference games). But the Bruins won 11 of their last 14 Big Ten matchups, and their wins over Wisconsin, Oregon and Michigan State showed they can beat anyone.

Their ability to force turnovers is the biggest reason to go with the Bruins, who are good enough defensively to make a run in a tournament that appears to be there for the taking.

Big Ten Tournament Best Longshot Bet: Oregon

Best odds: +2800 (DraftKings)

The red-hot Ducks, who have historically made a ton of noise in March under Dana Altman, strike me as a great “why not?” team.

Oregon started the season 8-0 and climbed to as high as No. 9 in the AP poll in December after notable non-conference wins over Oregon State, Texas A&M, San Diego State and Alabama.

Altman’s team got off to a horrible start in Big Ten play, falling to 5-8 in the conference in early February, but it has since rebounded in a massive way. Now, the Ducks — who boast wins over Maryland and Wisconsin — enter the tournament on a 7-game winning streak heading into their Big Ten Tournament opener against Indiana on Thursday.

ACC Conference Tourney Odds, Best Bets

• When: Tuesday-Saturday
• How to watch title game: Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
• Where: Spectrum Center (Charlotte)

ACC Conference Tournament Outrights

ACC Tournament Best Bet: Clemson

Best odds: +700 (DraftKings)

It’s tricky to give a best bet here, because there’s no value in the safe play, the Duke Blue Devils, who are shorter than -300 to win three games in a row. Louisville and Clemson both had excellent years, and the Tigers were the only team to beat Duke. Both Louisville and Clemson have the experience and the depth, as each of their rosters features four players who average double-figures scoring.

We’re splitting hairs here. Both these teams went 18-2 in the league, and Louisville is currently ranked No. 14 in the AP Top 25, while Clemson is No. 11. The Cardinals did beat the Tigers head-to-head at home in early January, but early-January results are never the best predictor of a tournament two months later.

I’ll go with Clemson, barely, based on the valuable experience that F Ian Schieffelin and G Chase Hunter gained in their surprising run to the Elite 8 as a 6-seed in the West in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

ACC Tournament Best Longshot Bet: North Carolina

Best odds: +3000 (DK)

Go figure. Neither Clemson nor Louisville is enough of a longshot to fit the bill here, but it’s hard to see North Carolina, SMU or Wake Forest running the table, either.

This feels like a good place to defer to the advanced metrics, which are much higher on the Heels than either the Mustangs or Demon Deacons.

Big East Conference Tourney Odds, Best Bets

• When: Wednesday-Saturday
• How to watch title game: Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
• Where: Madison Square Garden

Big East Conference Tournament Outrights

Big East Tournament Best Bet: St. John’s

Best odds: +155 (DraftKings)

Something tells me I’m going to regret giving out multiple 1-seeds as best bets, but I like St. John’s to continue an incredible season so far at home at Madison Square Garden. The pro-Johnnies crowd isn’t what makes them a good pick, though — this team is legit in Year 2 under Rick Pitino, especially on the defensive end.

St. John’s is big at every position (the shortest starter on this roster is 6-foot-4), rebounds with an edge and relies on several veteran transfers who have won 16 of their last 17 dating back to January 4.

Big East Tournament Best Longshot Bet: Connecticut

Best odds: +550 (Caesars)

The reigning national champs have had a disappointing year, but they offer some upside at longer than 5-to-1 after how well we’ve seen them play in March the last two years. Last year’s squad was rolling by the time the conference tourney started, but don’t forget that in 2023, the squad that ended up steamrolling its way to the national title went 24-7 (13-7 Big East) in the regular season.

I’m not comparing this year’s squad to either the 2023 or 2024 version, but I’m not ruling out a run by a seasoned team led by veteran Alex Karaban and star freshman Liam McNeeley.

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