CNN Data Analyst Harry Enten said that establishment Republicans in Washington, D.C., have “a lot to be worried about” if Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton wins the GOP primary for U.S. Senate because he’s polling so closely against Democratic candidates in the general election.
Why It Matters
Polling shows Paxton with a slight lead in the GOP primary and follows months of heightened attention on his candidacy, legal history and personal life, issues generating both criticism and support online.
The 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary has become a national proxy battle over the GOP’s direction, with Paxton running as a challenger to long-serving incumbent Senator John Cornyn and GOP Congressman Wesley Hunt.
What To Know
Speaking with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins, Enten noted recent polling by the University of Texas’ Texas Politics Project, showing Paxton leading Cornyn by two points and Hunt by 10.
“This of course worries not just John Cornyn but establishment Republicans as well. It worries Washington Republicans,” Enten said.
“Why is that? Because looking ahead to the general election, Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988,” Enten said, later adding, “But look at the polling … the bottom line is this, Washington Republicans fear that Ken Paxton could be the nominee because that could lead to a very competitive general election. And based on the polling data, they have a lot to be worried about, Kaitlan.”
Taking to X on Wednesday, Enten also said, “Mind blown about the early vote in Texas. TX Dems may outvote the GOP for the 1st time in a midterm primary since 2002! This indicates they’re well on their way to having higher primary turnout nationally & since 06 the party w/ higher primary turnout won the House every time.”
What People Are Saying
D. Stephen Voss, political science professor at the University of Kentucky, to Newsweek via email Thursday night: “Texans haven’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since the Eighties. Donald Trump won Texas in 2024 by more than 13 percentage points. Given past voting behavior, the GOP shouldn’t be struggling in Texas. But the Republicans, like the Democrats, seem to lean toward nominating candidates most likely to discourage swing voters. It would be unfortunate for the Republicans if Texas ends up being closely contested, because of the attention and resources they’d need to invest in what should have been an easy win. Republican dollars spent in Texas represent money that might have been used in swing states. But if the GOP actually lost in Texas? That unlikely outcome would be devastating to Republican party leaders trying to hold on to the Senate.”
This is a developing story that will be updated with additional information.
