Cynical Synergy—Why the Israeli-Azerbaijani Alliance Is a Blueprint for War-Driven Diplomacy | Opinion

This time last year, Azerbaijan finalized its seizure of the territory of Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh (NK). Since then, Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel and the war in Gaza have taken much of the global attention away from Artsakh/NK. At its essence, the Israeli-Azerbaijani alliance illustrates a pattern of cynically taking advantage of the escalation of mass violence in Artsakh/NK and Gaza.

For those unfamiliar with the region, the NK conflict in the South Caucasus is a long-standing territorial dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia that re-emerged in the late 1980s. Although its origins trace back much earlier, this conflict has gone through three major rounds of war—one between 1991 and 1994, another lasting 44 days in 2020, and a subsequent escalation involving ethnic cleansing in 2023. The last two armed escalations have shifted control of NK from Armenia to Azerbaijan. In the summer of 2023, Azerbaijan launched an assault on Artsakh in September after a 10-month blockade.

This military offensive, which followed failed negotiations, involved heavy shelling and gunfire throughout the year. Concerns were raised about ethnic cleansing and accusations of genocide against the population of Artsakh, which were predominantly ethnic Armenians and numbered around 120,000. The region was recognized by its inhabitants as the Republic of Artsakh, and Armenians were seeking international recognition of its independence.

Azerbaijan prevailed with superior military firepower. That was due to an unlikely partner—Israel.

What role did Israel play in shaping the NK conflict between 2020 and 2023?

During the 2020 war, Israel’s then-President Reuven Rivlin acknowledged that “Israel has longstanding relations with Azerbaijan … the cooperation between the two countries is not aimed against any side.” In reality, this partnership closely aligns with Israel’s broader security interests, particularly regarding Iran. Both Israel and Azerbaijan view Iran as a significant threat—Israel due to Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and aggressive rhetoric against Zionism, and Azerbaijan due to its complex ethnic relationship with its neighbor and their shared border.

In this context, successive Israeli governments have exploited the animosity between Iran and their own nation as a seemingly perfect justification for their involvement in the NK conflict. Azerbaijan’s reliance on Israel for military equipment grew substantially from 2011 to 2020, with Israel contributing 27 percent of the country’s arms imports. The majority of these transfers occurred between 2016 and 2020, during which Israel supplied 69 percent of Azerbaijan’s total major arms imports.

The escalation of the NK conflict was a win-win for both Israel and Azerbaijan. It gave Israel the opportunity to test advanced military technologies in real-time conflict scenarios while making billions of dollars between 2016 and 2023. Azerbaijan greatly benefited from utilizing innovative arms and technology during the 2020 war, gaining significant momentum against the Armenians in NK. Game-changing weapons such as loitering munitions, reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), guided missiles, and ballistic missiles were supplied to Azerbaijan between 2016 and 2020.

This diplomacy and weapons testing linked Artsakh/NK and Gaza for Israel and Azerbaijan.

Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and the subsequent war in Gaza led Azerbaijan to adopt and echoed the sentiments of Israel’s President Rivlin. This approach mirrors Israel’s neglect of the violence in Artsakh. Azerbaijan’s balancing act worked to maintain its partnership with Israel and keep relations intact.

A part of Azerbaijan’s strategy regarding Gaza also focused on maintaining good relations with Turkey, a key ally that supports both the Palestinians and Hamas. Turkey’s conservative, pro-Islamist government, led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has adopted a strong anti-Israel stance and openly supported Hamas in its advocacy for the Palestinian cause.

Azerbaijan’s balancing act was demonstrated when President Ilham Aliyev met with Israeli President Isaac Herzog at the Munich Security Conference in February 2024. Despite Erdogan’s rhetoric, Azerbaijani authorities have imposed a de facto ban on protests against Israel since Oct. 7, reflecting Azerbaijan’s strategy of maintaining silence on the Gaza conflict. This deliberate avoidance of the issue highlights Azerbaijan’s careful strategy that parallels Israel’s silence on the ethnic cleansing of Armenians in Artsakh.

Baku’s policy regarding Gaza is driven by financial and energy interests in its relationship with Israel. Azerbaijan’s energy supplies play a pivotal role in enabling Israel to sustain its military efforts amid the ongoing Gaza conflict and the intensifying tensions on its northern front with Hezbollah. Baku has continued to strengthen its partnership with Israel—between January and April 2024, Azerbaijan exported 1,021,917 tons of crude oil to Israel, reflecting a nearly 28 percent increase compared to 2023.

The Israeli-Azerbaijani alliance demonstrates continuity, strategy, and a pattern of cynically benefiting from the escalation of mass violence and trade. Above all, this alliance shows great resilience. As long as the animosity between Iran and Israel persists, these ties are expected to endure and even strengthen. Genocide or no genocide, such a “winning team” is not easily changed.

Dr. Eldad Ben Aharon (@EldadBenAharon) is an Irish Research Council (IRC) postdoctoral fellow in international security at Dublin City University. He leads the research project titled, 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict and Israel’s Foreign Policy: Securitization, Geopolitics, and Arms Trading.

The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.