Dan Osborn’s Chances of Beating Republican Pete Ricketts in Nebraska

Independent candidate Dan Osborn officially entered Nebraska’s Senate race on Tuesday, setting up an election that Democrats hope will become competitive ahead of the midterms next November.

Newsweek reached out to Osborn and incumbent Senator Pete Ricketts, a Republican, for comment via email.

Why It Matters

Nebraska is a reliably Republican state and has not voted Democratic at the presidential level since 1964, but its Senate race was more competitive than expected last year. Osborn, an independent with no ties to either major political party, lost to GOP Senator Deb Fischer by less than seven points, despite President Donald Trump carrying the state by 20 points.

Typically, the party in the White House loses congressional seats in the midterm elections; still, Republicans have some cushioning in the Senate with a 53-47 majority and a favorable map.

Democrats view GOP-held seats in Maine and North Carolina as the best opportunities to flip a seat. However, to secure a majority, they’ll have to win Senate races in double-digit Trump states, such as Iowa, Ohio, or Texas.

Osborn hasn’t said he’d caucus with Democrats, but an Osborn victory could help Democrats chip away at the GOP majority.

What To Know

Osborn made his campaign official, targeting Ricketts, the state’s former governor, in a video posted on X (formerly Twitter) on Tuesday morning.

“I’ve been a registered independent my whole life,” Osborn said in the video. “I didn’t buy my way into politics. I only got involved when the corporate bosses came after my coworkers at the factory. I’m running for Senate because Congress shouldn’t just be a playground for the rich.”

Only one poll of the race has been made public: an internal one from Osborn’s exploratory committee released in April. That poll showed Ricketts with 46 percent of the vote, while 45 percent of respondents said they planned to back Osborn. It surveyed 524 likely voters and was conducted by Change Research.

Internal polls are sometimes viewed as less reliable than independent polls, as they can be selectively released by those who sponsor them. No independent polls have been conducted for the race.

Osborn, who also ran as an independent last year, received support from nearly 47 percent of Nebraska voters, while 53 percent backed Fischer in last year’s Senate race. At the same time, Ricketts easily won in the state’s special election, receiving nearly 63 percent of the vote against Democratic candidate Preston Love.

Osborn could “reasonably be expected to be competitive” in the race, Kevin Smith, professor of political science at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, told Newsweek.

“That’s based on his run last time. No one expected him to be as competitive as he was against Fischer, and he starts this time with a lot more name recognition and a ‘brand’ that’s familiar to a lot of voters in Nebraska,” Smith said.

Still, it should be Ricketts’ “race to lose,” as there is “just too big of a party registration advantage for Republicans” for anyone to overcome, and Ricketts may be more popular among the state’s GOP base than Fischer.

“I don’t see Ricketts as vulnerable as Fischer. He was a pretty popular governor, has done nothing in his Senate term that I see as giving GOP voters a reason to look elsewhere, and resources are not going to be an issue for his campaign,” Smith said.

Democrats haven’t said whether they plan to run a candidate in Nebraska. They did not run a candidate in the Fischer-Osborn race in 2024.

What People Are Saying

University of Nebraska-Lincoln Professor Kevin Smith told Newsweek: “If loss of overseas markets starts hurting farmers, if hospitals start closing in rural Nebraska, if people start worrying about losing health insurance, that could give GOP voters a reason to look at Osborn.

“A big deal for him will be maintaining the perception that he is a true independent. If he ends up being seen as getting too close to the Democratic Party that could be a problem, regardless of how the issues and the events of national politics play out.

“To say the Democratic Party brand is unpopular in rural areas is an understatement, and I have a hard time seeing those voters seriously considering an alternative to the GOP candidate if that alternative is perceived as getting too cozy with the Democrats.”

Will Coup, a campaign spokesperson for Senator Pete Ricketts, told the Nebraska Examiner: “Senator Ricketts has consistently worked for and voted to secure the border and cut taxes for Nebraska workers, families and seniors. Dan Osborn is bought and paid for by his liberal, out-of-state, coastal donors.”

What Happens Next

The Cook Political Report classifies the race as Safe Republican, meaning it is not considered competitive at this point. Sabato’s Crystal Ball views it as Likely Republican.