Democrat Tom Suozzi Wins New York Special Election, AP Projects

Democrat Tom Suozzi has won the special election in New York to replace former Representative George Santos, according to the Associated Press, with 51 percent of the vote counted.

Democrats successfully flipped a GOP congressional seat in New York, fighting off the steady gains that Republicans have made in the district and their immigration attacks amid the state’s migrant crisis.

Representative Tom Suozzi won back his House seat in New York’s 3rd Congressional District on Tuesday, defeating Republican Mazi Pilip. The two were running to fill the vacancy left by expelled Representative George Santos. The race was projected to be a competitive one in a swing district that voted for Joe Biden by 9 points in 2020 but elected Santos in 2022.

But it wasn’t just Suozzi and Pilip on the ballot in Tuesday’s special election. The influx of migrants in New York also meant residents in the 3rd District, which includes parts of Long Island, were casting a vote on the nation’s immigration crisis. Throughout the special election, New York Republicans deployed their national strategy on border security, going after Suozzi for his immigration record and dubbing him “Sanctuary Suozzi.”

Suozzi, on the other hand, sought to distance himself from Biden, whose administration has taken heat over the immigration issue. He admitted that the migrant crisis had “landed right in our own backyard” and vowed to secure the southern border. The Democrat even hit Biden on his age, telling Fox’s Good Day New York on the eve of the election that the 81-year-old president is “old” and stopping short of committing to voting for his reelection.

Political consultant Jay Townsend told Newsweek that Suozzi’s victory on Tuesday was partly to do with his moderate image, as well as his acumen and early voting strategy. He also said that Pilip’s lack of political skills likely boosted the Democrat in the race.

While Republicans have made steady gains in the 3rd District since Biden’s 2020 victory—such as Santos’ 8-point win in 2022—both Biden and Donald Trump remain unpopular there. Independents make up a third of registered voters in the district, while Democrats account for 39 percent and Republicans represent 28 percent.

With a significant number of moderate voters in the district, both candidates shifted on major issues. While Suozzi moved his immigration message to the right, Pilip softened her abortion stance. Ultimately, while the Republicans’ offensive strategy on immigration failed to resonate with voters in New York, the Democrats’ proven abortion strategy scored a victory.

Jeffrey Kraus, a political science professor at Wagner College, told Newsweek that while Suozzi’s win will be “a psychological boost” for the Democrats, “special election outcomes often have no long-term impact.” He added that Tuesday’s snowstorm in New York could have depressed voter turnout.

Townsend agreed, saying, “It’s a low-turnout special election in February during a snowstorm and more a measure of the party organization’s ability to turn out their voters than a referendum on any one particular issue.”

Political expert Mona Kleinberg told Newsweek that Tuesday’s election should be read with caution since special elections, even without a snowstorm, typically have lower voter turnout. But she predicted that Democrats and Republicans would continue to campaign on the race’s issues going into November.

“We know that abortion and immigration are winning issues. Voters care about them,” she said. “This means that Democrats will likely continue to be on the defensive when it comes to immigration and on the offensive when it comes to abortion. Of course, the reverse is true for Republicans.”