Democrats Catch a Break in the South

In a region where Democrats have grown accustomed to disappointment, two moves in as many days shifted the political landscape—and, marking a rare occurrence, in their favor.

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, the Republican believed by many as the party’s best shot to reclaim a Senate seat, announced he won’t run. Hours later, former North Carolina Democratic Governor Roy Cooper confirmed he will.

Democratic strategists consulted by Newsweek say the back-to-back developments amount to something they rarely see in the South: a real opening. They argue that the combination of Kemp stepping aside and Cooper stepping in is the closest thing the party has had to momentum in the region in years, calling it a “breakthrough moment” that gives Democrats their first clear path to flipping Senate seats below the Mason-Dixon Line this cycle—and possibly the only one.

Why It Matters

The pairing of events reverberated through Washington and Southern state capitals as both parties map out their strategies for the 2026 midterms. Georgia and North Carolina are poised to be among the most closely watched battlegrounds in a Senate map already tilted against Democrats, who must flip four Republican-held seats to reclaim the majority in the upper chamber.

What To Know

Cooper’s decision to enter North Carolina’s open Senate race is more than a recruitment coup; it’s a sign of life for a party navigating a map where victories are scarce. A two-term governor with a perfect record in statewide contests, Cooper is stepping into the race vacated by retiring Republican Senator Thom Tillis. His expected opponent is Michael Whatley, chair of the Republican National Committee and backed by President Donald Trump.

“Democrats won the Senate recruitment jackpot with Roy Cooper tossing his hat into the ring,” Democratic strategist Maria Cardona told Newsweek.

“Cooper is wildly popular, has never lost a race, was the one who expanded healthcare to hundreds of thousands of North Carolinians, and is singularly poised to hold Republicans accountable for wiping that protection away.”

In Georgia, the news cut in the opposite direction for Republicans. Kemp had been courted for months to challenge Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff, the lone incumbent Democrat defending a seat in a state Trump carried in 2024. His refusal to run scrambles the GOP field and gives Ossoff breathing room in what was expected to be the marquee race of the cycle.

“Georgia and North Carolina are no longer long shots — they’re the center of the fight,” said Robert Creamer, partner at Democracy Partners. “Cooper’s campaign is extremely exciting. And in Georgia, Ossoff proved himself to be a strong candidate last time. Kemp’s decision not to run gives Democrats a real shot to hold that seat. For once, the South is giving Democrats a path.”

Kemp framed his decision as personal. “Running next year was not the right decision for me and my family,” he posted on X, formerly Twitter. But his absence from the ballot is already reshaping the race. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s last poll had Kemp and Ossoff in a dead heat, while Ossoff held a clear lead over other potential Republican contenders.

Timing

The timing of the two announcements made the effect even sharper. Within Democratic circles, the reaction was equal parts relief and opportunity.

“Both of these leaders know their respective states and reflect their constituents far better than those of us in Washington, which gives their party a rare opening to hold and gain ground in what otherwise is a very tough Senate midterm for Democrats,” John LaBombard, former red-state Democratic communications director in the Senate and current senior vice president at public relations firm ROKK Solutions, told Newsweek.

Yet that optimism is tempered by math. Democrats still need to flip four seats to reclaim the Senate majority, which means pulling off wins in tough states like Texas, Iowa and Ohio, while defending their own vulnerable spots in Georgia, Michigan and Minnesota.

“Given the map, the Senate is going to be a tough mountain for Democrats to climb this cycle,” Democratic strategist Doug Gordon told Newsweek. “Candidates matter.”

As Gordon notes, the problem is scale. Even if Democrats hold Georgia and flip North Carolina, they’ll still need at least three more pickups in a cycle where most of the other opportunities are in deep-red territory. This likely means that races in Texas, Ohio and Iowa have to fall their way—and the party can’t afford a single mistake on defense in places like Michigan, Minnesota or New Hampshire.

“Democrats are going to need lots of things to break their way to take the Senate. But this is a good start,” Gordon added.

What People Are Saying

Patricia Murphy, senior political columnist for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, wrote: “After all of his behind-the-scenes moves in the race against Ossoff, a win or a loss in the Senate race will be chalked up as a win or loss for Kemp, too. The governor may not be on the ballot in 2026, but so far, he’s running the race.”

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand said in a joint statement: “Governor Cooper is a formidable candidate who will flip North Carolina’s Senate seat.”

What Happens Next

Democratic strategists note the unusual alignment presents simultaneous opportunities. The combination of Kemp’s departure and Cooper’s entrance could be pivotal if Democrats are to capitalize on the historical trend of midterm losses for the party in the White House.