Incumbent Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo, a Republican, is barely leading his Democratic opponent Attorney General Aaron Ford, a new poll shows on Friday.
Newsweek reached out to both campaigns via email for comment.
Why It Matters
A key swing state, Nevada is poised as fertile ground for both Democrats to make gains and Republicans to hold majorities across federal and local offices in upcoming elections.
President Donald Trump became the first Republican candidate to win the state in two decades in the 2024 presidential election. The gubernatorial race remains a key target for Democrats, who likely hope the president’s tanking approval ratings hinder Republicans in the midterm elections.
Trump’s slide in the polls comes amid the war in Iran and subsequent rising gasoline and oil prices, which are impacting Americans.
What To Know
According to the poll from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI), Lombardo has 39 percent versus Ford’s 38 percent—a statistical tie—while 6 percent would pick a third-party candidate and 17 percent are unsure.
The poll surveyed 845 registered voters from March 10 to March 13 and has a margin of error of 3.37 percent.
Forty percent of respondents say they would back a generic Democratic candidate for a statewide office versus 36 percent who would support a Republican, while 19 percent remain unsure.
Mike Noble, NPI founder and CEO, says in the poll, “In other words, Lombardo is running about 3 points ahead of the generic Republican, while Ford is running about 2 points behind the generic Democrat. That is usually the profile of an incumbent who has built a personal vote, and of a challenger who still has room to consolidate his own side.”
“Lombardo is doing what strong incumbents do — he’s running ahead of his party,” Noble added. “The generic ballot says Nevada still leans a bit blue, but Lombardo’s personal brand, job image, and financial position are keeping him highly competitive.”
Ford’s favorability rating is 40 percent versus a 33 percent unfavorable rating, the poll shows. Nineteen percent have no opinion of him, and 8 percent have never heard of him. Lombardo’s favorability rating is 49 percent versus a 38 percent unfavorable mark.
Both Ford and Lombardo draw their strongest support from their respective parties, while Lombardo leads with men 45 percent to 35 percent, and Ford leads with women 40 percent to 34 percent.
What People Are Saying
Noble, in part in the poll: “Ford absolutely has a path here, but the remaining undecideds are not easy partisans. They’re more moderate, more independent, and less locked in. The candidate who gives those voters permission to make this race about competence, affordability, and stability will have the edge.”
Ford, on X Thursday: “Trump and his friend @JoeLombardoNV must live on another planet. Gas prices have exploded. Housing, health care, and utility costs are unbearably high. And groceries prices have soared. Unlike Lombardo, I’ll put Nevadans and their wallets first—not Trump and his lunacy.”
Lombardo, on X Thursday: “This fuel crisis didn’t happen overnight – it’s the result of bad policy decisions in California led by Gavin Newsom. I’ve taken steps to make Nevada more independent and to diversify our fuel supply. Standing up for Nevadans is always my top priority.”
What Happens Next
The primary election is scheduled for June and the general election in November.
