Democrats’ Chances of Winning the Senate, the House and the White House
November 2, 2024
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Two leading bookmakers are offering odds on the Democrats to win control of the White House, Senate and House of Representatives on November 5.
Speaking to Newsweek, Betfair said its odds on the Democrats winning all three contests are 6/1 (14.5 percent), while Star Sports has odds of 7/1 (12.5 percent) on a clean sweep for President Biden’s party.
Polling suggests the 2024 presidential election remains on a knife edge. An analysis of recent surveys by polling website 538, published on Thursday, put Republican candidate Donald Trump ahead by 1.4 points, with 48 percent of the vote versus 46.7 percent for Democrat Kamala Harris.
However, due to the Electoral College system, a candidate can lose the popular vote but still win overall—538 has Trump as the favorite, with a 52 percent chance of victory compared to Harris’s 48 percent.
If the Democrats secure not just the White House but both chambers of Congress, it would dramatically increase Harris’ influence and her ability to pass policy proposals into law.
“Even if the Democrats manage to eke out a win against Donald Trump, their legislative agenda could be hampered if they are unsuccessful in the Senate and the House of Representatives,” Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom told Newsweek.
“After losing the House of Representatives, House Democrats are keen to gain back ground from the Republicans in this election. They will also be zealously guarding their slim advantage in the Senate.
“We’ve crunched the numbers and give the Democrats 6/1 odds of winning the presidency as well as both chambers in Congress. This gives them only a 14 percent chance of doing so, compared to the 45 percent chance that the Republicans have of winning all three.”
Newsweek reached out to the Harris campaign via email and the Democratic Party via online inquiry form for comment.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks in Madison, Wisconsin, on October 30. Two prominent bookmakers have given the Democrats odds of 6/1 and 7/1 on winning the White House, Senate and House. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks in Madison, Wisconsin, on October 30. Two prominent bookmakers have given the Democrats odds of 6/1 and 7/1 on winning the White House, Senate and House. Scott Olson/GETTY
Newsweek also spoke to Star Sports political better analyst William Kedjanyi.
He said: “Republicans could have more to celebrate next week, with the prospect of seizing control of the Senate, as well as maintaining their majority in the House of Representatives. We price a GOP clean sweep at 6/4, with the Democrats an unlikely 7/1 to complete a federal government trifecta.”
The Democrats currently enjoy a wafer-thin Senate majority, with 51 Senators affiliated with their party versus 49 for the Republicans. The GOP hopes to take control of the upper chamber, which it failed to do in November 2022 when an anticipated “red wave” failed to materialize.
The West Virginia seat currently occupied by Joe Manchin, an independent who was elected as a Democrat, is widely expected to fall to the Republicans. However, Senator Ted Cruz’s seat could be at risk in Texas, with polls giving him a lead of between 1 and 7 points over his Democratic challenger, Representative Colin Allred.
In November 2022, the Democrats lost control of the House, leading to Nancy Pelosi being replaced as speaker first by Kevin McCarthy and then Mike Johnson. According to a study published by The Economist on October 31, the Democrats have a 54 percent chance of controlling the House after next Tuesday’s elections, against 46 percent for their Republican rivals.
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