Democrats Poised to Beat Top Republican in Swing State, Poll Suggests
October 10, 2024
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Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson is gaining ground on six-term U.S. Representative Scott Perry in Pennsylvania, according to a recent poll.
Stelson is a former television anchor seeking to unseat Perry, the former House Freedom Caucus chair who has represented Pennsylvania since 2013.
A Susquehanna Polling and Research survey conducted between October 4 and 7, just ahead of the only scheduled debate between the two candidates, shows Stelson leading the GOP incumbent by nine points.
The poll shows Stelson’s support extending beyond the margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points, with 48 percent of respondents backing her and 39 percent backing Perry.
Cook Political Report identifies Pennsylvania’s 10th District, which includes Harrisburg and York, as a Republican-leaning region with an R+6 rating.
The poll also asked respondents about the candidates’ favorability, finding the Democratic candidate with a 17-point lead. Forty percent of respondents have a favorable view of Stelson, while 27 percent have a favorable view of Perry. Conversely, 20 percent of voters view Stelson unfavorably and 38 percent say the same about Scott.
Newsweek reached out to Perry and Stelson for comment via email on Thursday.
“I was surprised that more people actually view [Perry] negatively than favorably,” President and CEO of the polling group, Jim Lee, told Harrisburg news station WHTM.
“But I think all this controversy around Scott Perry for the last three years, since the January 6th insurrection, has caught up with him a little bit, and he’s having a hard time getting out in front of it,” Lee said.
L-R: Janelle Stelson in York, Pennsylvania, on April 9. Rep. Scott Perry in Washington, D.C., on July 18, 2023. A recent poll shows Stelson leading Perry for his seat in Pennsylvania. L-R: Janelle Stelson in York, Pennsylvania, on April 9. Rep. Scott Perry in Washington, D.C., on July 18, 2023. A recent poll shows Stelson leading Perry for his seat in Pennsylvania. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images/AP Photo/Joe Lamberti
Perry was allegedly in discussions with former President Donald Trump about the plot to install Department of Justice official Jeffrey Clark as attorney general to support the false claim the 2020 election was rigged in the final few weeks of Trump’s presidency.
He is also accused of being involved in the fake elector scheme to falsely declare Trump had beaten President Joe Biden in several key states.
Perry has not been charged with any offense but did have his phone seized by the FBI in August 2022 as part of special counsel Jack Smith’s federal election obstruction investigation. Trump has maintained his innocence and said that the case is part of a political witch hunt.
House Speaker Mike Johnson is set to campaign for Perry on Friday in Mechanicsburg, which is in the district, Punchbowl News reported.
On Tuesday, Johnson voiced his support for Perry on X, formerly Twitter, writing: “Congressman Scott Perry’s radical Left opponent in PA-10 will stop at nothing to try to destroy this patriot’s reputation. Janelle Stelson is blatantly lying about his record and gaslighting the district without an ounce of truth to her claims.
“She is desperate because she has no merit of her own to run on. @PatriotsPerry fights every day for the people of Pennsylvania, and he is a tremendous asset to the House Intel Committee, the House of Representatives, and the United States of America.”
In 2022, Perry won reelection with 53.8 percent of the vote, a slight lead over his 53.3 percent victory in 2020 and two more points than his 51.3 percent lead in 2018.
Pennsylvania is a hotly contested battleground state. Aggregate polls show a near deadlock between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, with The Hill showing Harris up by 0.6 percent, FiveThirtyEight with Harris up by 0.8 percentage points, and the New York Times finding a 1-point lead for Harris.
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