Donald Trump Ahead in Just One Swing State: Final NYT-Siena Poll
November 3, 2024
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Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris in just one swing state, according to the final Sienna College/New York Times poll before the election.
The poll, released on Sunday, shows Harris leading in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia. The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Trump leads in Arizona.
It surveyed 7,878 likely voters across the seven states between October 24 and November 2, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 points within each state.
Sienna College/New York Times is one of America’s most trusted pollsters. Polling analyst FiveThirtyEight ranks it first on its list of 282 pollsters for its historical track record and transparency. Polling analyst Nate Silver ranks it in the top two polling firms, giving it an A+ grade.
Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris delivers remarks before departing the vice president’s residence on October 23, 2024 in Washington, DC. Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign… Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris delivers remarks before departing the vice president’s residence on October 23, 2024 in Washington, DC. Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at McCamish Pavilion on October 28, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. The final poll from NYT-Siena has Kamala leading in four swing states.
Kevin Dietsch/Anna Moneymaker/GETTY
Since the last round of NYT/Sienna polling in the battleground states, momentum has moved towards Harris in Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina, three states where Trump previously led her but where she is now ahead.
In Pennsylvania, polls have tightened in Trump’s favor. The previous NYT/Sienna poll, conducted between October 7 and October 10, had Harris leading by four points in the Keystone state – it now has them tied.
In Michigan, the results are unchanged: the candidates were tied in the previous survey conducted between September 21 and 26, and they remain tied now.
In Wisconsin, Harris has maintained her lead, and in Arizona, Trump has maintained his lead.
This is a breaking news story and will be updated.
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