Donald Trump Breaks Ahead of Kamala Harris in Must-Win State: New Poll

Former President Donald Trump has a small lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the pivotal swing state of Pennsylvania, according to a new poll.

Trump was favored by 49 percent of likely voters in the Keystone State, while Harris was supported by 47 percent in a poll released by InsiderAdvantage on Tuesday. Another 2 percent of respondents said they would vote for a different candidate, while an additional 2 percent are still undecided.

InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery, a Republican former Georgia state lawmaker, said in a brief analysis shared alongside the poll that Trump was “gaining momentum” in the battleground state due in part to a drop in support for Harris among groups including Black men.

“Donald Trump appears to be gaining momentum in Pennsylvania with his numbers among independent, senior, and African American voters increasing or holding steady,” Towery said. “It appears that Harris’s support from African American males is actually deteriorating a bit.”

“This race continues to remain very close with turnout and enthusiasm remaining important,” he added. “The Democrats enjoy a slight advantage with regard to enthusiasm at this point, although the gap has narrowed.”

Newsweek reached out for comment to the Harris and Trump campaigns via email on Tuesday night.

Trump was also up in Pennsylvania by 2 percentage points in a recent Trafalgar Group poll and 1 precent in a survey by Patriot Polling. Trafalgar is a Republican polling firm, while Patriot Polling is nonpartisan but often produces polling results that favor Republicans.

While some other recent polls have shown Harris with a slight lead over Trump, the overall polling picture suggests that Pennsylvania is likely to be very close in November. An average of recent polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight showed Harris with a 0.8 percent lead in the state as of Tuesday evening.

Online betting platform Polymarket, funded in part by early Trump backer Peter Thiel, on Monday showed Trump with his best-ever odds of defeating Harris in Pennsylvania. Election odds on the platform are determined by bets placed on candidates rather than outside data, like polls.

Pennsylvania, which was narrowly won by President Joe Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2016, is one of at least seven swing states that will likely decide which candidate wins the White House in November.

Recent polls of the other battlegrounds suggest that each contest is likely to be very close. FiveThirtyEight averages on Tuesday showed Harris leading Trump by small margins in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, while the former president had slim leads over the vice president in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

Pennsylvania, with 19 Electoral College votes, is considered a particularly important prize for both candidates, with the path to the presidency becoming significantly more difficult for either candidate without the Keystone State.