Odds of President Donald Trump being impeached during his second term sat at a record high on Friday.
Trump has faced impeachment calls following strikes against Iran and a widening Middle East conflict.
Kalshi’s betting odds suggest traders believe it is likely Trump will be impeached at some point during his second term. On Friday, the betting odds market showed a 67 percent chance he would be impeached before the end of his term. That’s an increase from one month earlier, when the likelihood of impeachment stood at 62 percent.
In Kalshi’s market, the odds of impeachment against Trump are 67 percent, the highest since he returned to office. Impeachment odds first reached 67 percent on February 22 and have since shifted back and forth, but have not been higher.
Polymarket, meanwhile, showed that impeachment odds through 2026 dropped; the market showed an 11 percent chance of impeachment this year, down from 14 percent one month earlier.
Betting odds reflect traders’ sentiment about current events, but they are not necessarily predictive.
Republicans currently hold a majority of seats in the House of Representatives and Senate, and most of the party remains firmly supportive of the president, so impeachment is not viewed as likely until after the midterms. Democrats are hopeful about their chances of reclaiming control of the House, but leadership has not said whether they plan to launch impeachment investigations into him.
Impeachment efforts would face even tougher odds in the Senate, where conviction would require the support of two-thirds of the senators. Democrats face a tough road to Senate control in November, but even if they win a slim majority, conviction would still require Republican support.
A White House spokesperson previously dismissed impeachment calls in a statement to Newsweek, writing, “Prior to ever holding office, President Trump has been consistent: lran can never possess a nuclear weapon…President Trump is taking decisive action to eliminate major national security threats to the American people, which past Presidents have talked about for 47 years, but only this President had the courage to accomplish.”
The House voted against an impeachment resolution against Trump in December 2025, focusing on his remarks that Democratic lawmakers were urging military members not follow unlawful orders, which engaged in sedition. Nearly two dozen Democrats voted against that impeachment effort.
This is a breaking news article that will be updated when more information becomes available.
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