Donald Trump Pledged to Lower Prices. These Food Prices Have Spiked Last Month

Despite President Donald Trump’s campaign promise to reduce grocery prices, recent data indicates that the cost of some essential food items has continued to climb.

Food prices saw an upward trend this month, with several key grocery items experiencing noticeable increases. Rising costs for essentials like eggs, bread and ground beef are adding pressure to household budgets, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Which Foods Saw the Biggest Price Increases?

The price of groceries, gas, housing and other goods and services jumped 0.5 percent from December to January.

As of January, 2025, the BLS reported that food prices rose 2.5 percent year-over-year, Christopher D. Burns, vice president and assistant director of research at wealth management firm Greenleaf Trust, told Newsweek.

According to the BLS data, the following grocery items saw an average price increase from December 2024 to January 2025:

• Eggs: Up 19.4 percent month to month amid continued supply issues related to the ongoing bird flu outbreak.
• Coffee: Up 3.5 percent. Per The New York Times, shortages in coffee are tied to extreme weather conditions and spiking global demand.
• Bacon: Up 1.8 percent.
• Bananas: Up 0.97 percent.
• Bread: Up 0.67 percent.
• Flour: Up 2.3 percent.

Average food prices typically vary month to month, but there’s been a stable price increase on eggs and bacon since November 2024, per the data.

Grocery prices are a worrying subject: NielsenIQ’s mid-year consumer outlook report indicates that for the second year in a row, the top concern among consumers is rising food prices.

In an effort to curb that concern, Trump issued an executive order that looked to resolve the cost-of-living crisis, which includes the impact of grocery store prices.

Luis Cabral, a professor of economics at New York University said there are a variety of factors causing increasing food prices, which means spiking prices do not necessarily fall on the Trump administration.

“Many of these have been around for more than a month, so I am not sure one can properly blame the current administration for it,” Cabral told Newsweek.

Which Food Prices Have Dropped?

According to the BLS data, the following items have dropped in average price from December 2024 to January 2025:

• Navel oranges
• Long-grain white rice
• Field-grown tomatoes
• Whole milk

What’s Driving the Price Hikes?

Kevin Thompson, founder and CEO of 9i Capital Group, told Newsweek that the biggest factors pushing food prices higher are tariffs and trade policy.

“Farmers are once again on the back foot, feeling the strain much like they did in 2017-2018,” Thompson said. “Retaliatory tariffs are cutting into their export markets, there’s a potential $230 billion reduction in the Agriculture Committee’s budget in the works, and they may soon have to pay higher wages for domestic labor, which will only drive prices up for consumers.”

A combination of other factors can contribute to food price spikes. This includes:

• Persistent Inflation: General inflationary trends continue to put upward pressure on consumer goods.
• Supply Chain Disruptions: Lingering effects from global economic slowdowns can impact food availability.
• Weather-Related Crop Shortages: Unfavorable growing conditions can reduce wheat and corn yields, pushing up costs for bread and livestock feed.
• Avian Flu Outbreak: Egg and poultry prices remain volatile due to supply constraints from ongoing health concerns in the industry.

How Can Inflation and Trump’s Trade Policies Impact Grocery Store Prices?

Inflation correlates with food prices. Thompson said that rising input costs, whether it’s fertilizer or seeds, have become more expensive, and those increases are passed down to consumers.

“If we rely more on domestic labor for food production, wages will go up, which also gets factored into food prices,” he said. “The burden of inflation doesn’t just fall on suppliers—it’s the consumer who feels it the most. And tariffs only make it worse.”

Some economists caution that the imposition of tariffs on imported goods may inadvertently contribute to rising consumer prices. For instance, Trump’s move to implement tariffs on steel and aluminum could increase production costs for food packaging, which are often passed on to consumers.

“Trump initially went big on tariff rhetoric, but in reality, not much changed in the grand scheme,” Thompson said, pointing to changes implemented under the Biden administration.

Tariffs can be an issue for farmers: With less demand for U.S. exports, exports on agricultural products like corn, pork and soybeans are dropping. That shortfall often falls on consumers, Thompson said.

However, changes in trade policies since Trump’s inauguration do not appear to have “a meaningful impact on food prices in the U.S. at this point,” Burns said.

“The U.S. imports agricultural products from countries like Mexico, which have been discussed in tariff negotiations, but other factors appear to be a more significant influence of food prices currently.”

Although Cabral said he doesn’t believe the recent increase in food prices can be properly attributed to trade policy, they can have an impact long-term.

“To be clear, Trump’s trade policies, if implemented, will have a significant upward impact on consumer prices. I expect the biggest effect will be on intermediate manufacturing products, but ultimately, we will all be hit with higher prices,” Cabral said.

When Will Prices Go Down?

NielsenIQ projects that some grocery prices could remain elevated through at least mid-2025.

The report also notes that consumer spending habits are shifting, with more shoppers opting for store brands and bulk purchasing to offset rising costs.

“Since 1970, food prices in the US have risen at a rate of roughly 4 percent per year, similar to the overall rate of inflation,” Burns said. “If prices fall for important inputs like energy, fertilizer, and wages, or if the Avian Influenza outbreak resolves itself more favorably than anticipated, food prices may go down.”

But shoppers shouldn’t hold their breath. “The more likely scenario is that food prices will continue their general rise alongside other prices for goods and services in the U.S.,” he said.

Thompson held a similar sentiment. He said, “Food is based on commodity prices, and as long as commodity prices remain elevated, they will remain higher for longer.”

What Have People Said?

Kevin Hassett, a White House economic adviser, told CNN: “We’re focusing on getting spending under control and having supply-side tax cuts and regulatory policies and drilling and so on, so that there’s a lot of supply-reduced demand…That’s how you get prices down at the more macroeconomic level.”

Senator Chris Van Hollen, a Maryland Democrat, said at a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Tuesday: “What we’re really facing here is an administration that campaigned on bringing down prices and is not doing that.”

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on Wednesday: “Welcome to the age of Trumpflation. Groceries are up. Chicken, pork, steak are all more expensive. Eggs prices are up 15% from last month… Donald Trump is breaking his promise to lower costs starting on day one.”

Norbert Herzog, NIQ Head of Global Strategic Insights in Tech & Durables, said in the NIQ report: “There’s an interesting intersection currently in play among consumers: People have heightened expectations for efficacy in what they purchase, but they are simultaneously gravitating toward perceived discount options (across channels and brand choice).”

What Happens Next?

The BLS will release updated CPI data on March 12, which will reflect data for February 2025.

For now, consumers can expect to continue feeling the pinch at the checkout line as food prices show little sign of stabilizing.