Donald Trump Surging Ahead of Kamala Harris in North Carolina: New Poll

Former President Donald Trump may have received a major boost to his chances in North Carolina on Tuesday, with the latest Rasmussen Reports poll finding the Republican nominee 5 percentage points ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris.

The survey, based on responses of 1,042 likely voters, found that 51 percent of North Carolinians plan to back Trump in the 2024 presidential race, while 46 percent chose Harris. The poll was conducted from October 9 to October 14 by Rasmussen and American Thinker, a conservative online magazine.

The survey gives Trump one of his largest leads in the Tar Heel State, just three weeks out from Election Day. North Carolina has the chance of becoming a tipping-point state in November, and polling overall has found that the state contest is among the closest battles between Harris and Trump this election season.

Voters in the Rasmussen poll indicated that the economy is the No. 1 issue when determining their choice for the Oval Office. The second most important issue was border security, followed by abortion.

When asked which issue is “the most important one for the next president to solve” out of four options—abortion rights, illegal immigration, rising prices and protecting our democracy—voters in the survey released Tuesday indicated immigration as their top issue (29 percent), followed by rising prices (24 percent), protecting our democracy (23 percent) and abortion rights (22 percent).

The majority of respondents (70 percent) also indicated that they want to see a “major change” brought in by the next president. Over three-quarters (77 percent) of likely voters surveyed said their choice for president is about “support” for a candidate rather than trying to “keep one candidate from winning.”

Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment on the poll Tuesday night.

Tracking from FiveThirtyEight finds that Trump is up by 0.9 points across statewide polls in North Carolina, leading Harris 48.2 percent to 47.3 percent on average.

Most recent polling has found the gap between Harris and Trump in the state to be much smaller than the Rasmussen survey. In a poll by The Wall Street Journal from September 28 to October 8, Trump and Harris were found tied in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup in North Carolina, based on responses of 600 registered voters in the state. When multiple candidates were included in the hypothetical ballot, including Libertarian nominee Chase Oliver, Trump was leading Harris by 1 point (46 percent to 45 percent).

In a survey from The Washington Post from September 25 to September 29, based on responses of 1,001 registered voters, Trump was up by 3 points in the Tar Heel State (50 percent to 47 percent). In a poll from ActiVote from September 7 to October 6, in a survey of 400 likely voters, Harris was up by 2 points (51 percent to 49 percent).

FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast model puts North Carolina in the “toss-up” category, alongside the six other swing states this election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.