Donald Trump Tariff Results Could Take Years To Show

President Donald Trump’s tariffs are likely to cause short-term pain for U.S. consumers, according to experts, but economists told Newsweek it’s difficult to know exactly when Americans will know for sure if the economic moves achieve the president’s goals.

Newsweek reached out to the U.S. Treasury for comment via email.

Why It Matters

Trump this week announced new tariffs on dozens of countries across the globe, stirring concerns from economists who say the tariffs will lead to higher prices. Trump, however, has said the tariffs are necessary to address the trade deficit with other countries, as well as restore U.S. manufacturing.

The stock market plummeted after Trump’s tariff announcement, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing nearly four percent lower on Thursday in the market’s worst day since the COVID-19 pandemic. The moves have sparked fears of a possible recession.

What To Know

Most economists agree the tariffs are likely to cause short-term consequences for Americans, who may face higher prices or an economic slowdown. But Trump is banking on the tariffs having a long-term benefit to the economy that will eventually balance out those pains.

Newsweek spoke to several economists who said Americans will not know for several years if Trump’s goals with the tariffs will be achieved, but they may quickly feel the financial pain inflicted by economic turmoil following the moves.

Robert Johnson, an economist at the University of Notre Dame, told Newsweek it typically takes a long time to assess the full impact of changes in trade policy, and he doesn’t expect quick answers on this “very large policy change.”

“Whether the policies ‘paid off’ will be difficult to answer, because changes in trade policy create winners and losers. Consumers lose, in that they pay higher prices for imports and typically have fewer products to choose from,” he said. “Some producers win, as they face diminished import competition.”

By the 2026 midterms, Americans will have a feel for how tariffs have impacted inflation; it may also be possible to discern whether investment in manufacturing is rising or falling, and which sectors are gaining and losing as a result of the policy, he said. By the 2028 election, Johnson said that Americans could have an even better understanding of those impacts.

But he warned it might be even longer before it’s fully known how tariffs will reshape U.S. society.

“This is a long run gambit, so the true measure of the policy ought to be taken in a decade or more,” Johnson added.

Peter Simon, professor of economics at Northeastern University, told Newsweek it may take years for companies to adjust and increase their domestic output, but prices could go up fairly quickly.

“Restoring manufacturing will take much longer—months if not years and for that to happen even then will require an increase in spending on those items so that inventories start to fall,” he said. “But with tariffs, prices go up so spending is likely to go down first. And even then exports will decrease so these firms may have excess production capacity even with no change in domestic buying.”

Many companies may never make the move to the U.S., as the tariffs could be eased by a future presidential administration, he said. Congress could also take back control of levying tariffs if Democrats retake a majority in the 2026 midterms.

“What American company in another country that produces car parts for U.S. buyers will close that shop and shift production here? These tariffs could be gone by tomorrow or in 4 years. I think that few firms, if any, would take that chance,” Simon said, noting it’s “not likely” Americans will see any clear benefits to the tariffs by 2026 or even 2028.

Another objective, Simon noted, for Trump is to decrease the trade deficit with other countries. Simon said the success of that goal will depend on how countries respond to the measures.

“Tariffs are imposed to save domestic jobs by raising the prices of imports. But with such strongly integrated economies as is the U.S., Canada, China, and Mexico, it will be impossible to say: some jobs will be saved, others lost. The net effect is not easily assessed, but it’s more likely that more jobs will be lost than saved,” he said.

It is also unknown if “reshoring,” or bringing businesses back to the U.S., will occur.

There is “very little reason to think that substantial reshoring will occur” if the tariffs are eventually removed, Thomas Prusa, an economics professor at Rutgers University, told Newsweek. If they do remain in place, he said reshoring will take “years, if not decades.”

“There might be some announced new investments projects, but it is inconceivable that those projects will come online in any significant way before 2030,” he said. “It is at least as likely that U.S. firms will have to move some production to other countries in order to avoid the high costs of US production (due to the tariffs) and in order to avoid the tariffs foreign countries will impose on the U.S.”

Laura Veldkamp, a professor of finance and economics at Columbia University, told Newsweek that if there will be a manufacturing boost, she’d expect to see this begin soon as early entrants will look to “grab lots of market shares.”

Still, she noted increased manufacturing would come at an “incredibly costly” price for Americans.

“For the trillions of dollars lost in stock market savings, and the billions extra consumers will pay, we could have subsidized existing manufacturers, at much less cost to the average household,” she said.

Some companies have already begun making adjustments due to the looming tariffs. Automobile producer Stellantis announced Thursday morning 900 employees would be laid off amid concerns about the moves. U.S. preorders for the Nintendo Switch 2 also been paused “in order to assess the potential impact of tariffs and evolving market conditions.”

Benefits regarding the trade deficit, may be “invisible” to many Americans compared to the chaos caused by higher prices, Robert Kudrle, professor emeritus at the University of Minnesota’s Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs, told Newsweek.

“There’s no question that both in the short-run, medium-run and the long-run too, there’s going to be some smoke coming out of smokestacks that is not coming out now. There will be some activity generated because of the protection,” he said. “But the real question is at what cost to the rest of the community.”

What People Are Saying

President Donald Trump, while announcing the new tariffs on Wednesday, said: “Chronic trade deficits are a national emergency.”

Prusa said: “The short run is easier to predict than is the long run. It is a near-lock that the tariffs will cause a recession. If the tariffs stay in place the poor state of the economy will make for a brutal midterm election for Republicans. Higher prices (inflation). Lower production. More unemployment. All the pieces are in place for stagflation.”

Kudrle said: “If you’re talking about expanding plants and the suggestion firms will make investments in the United States, that might happen in the intermediate run, but I think in the very-short run, nobody’s going to be doing anything except trying to figure out what the medium-term and long-term are. After all, it takes a long time to build a plant. And you don’t want to build a billion-dollar plant simply for it to have to be written off simply because the tariff policy that you built the plant for is not going to remain in place.”

What Happens Next

The 10 percent “baseline” tariffs will take effect on April 5, and the reciprocal tariffs will kick in on April 9.

A Budget Lab analysis found that Americans could pay up to $4,200 more per year as a result of the tariffs, but the full effect of the tariffs will be felt over the coming weeks and months if they are not changed.