Donald Trump’s Chances of Beating Kamala Harris in Wisconsin: Recent Polls
October 6, 2024
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Donald Trump may not win Wisconsin in November as recent polls suggest Vice President Kamala Harris is just ahead in the key swing state.
The former president will appear at a rally in Juneau on Sunday as the Republican looks to appeal to voters in The Badger State with less than one month to go until November’s election.
Wisconsin and its 10 Electoral College votes is one of the battleground states which could determine who wins the neck-and-neck 2024 race overall.
Harris’ clearest path to victory in November is to win the three so-called blue-wall swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, barring any shock results elsewhere. Harris would need to win the one Electoral College vote in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District in this scenario, with polls suggesting she is on course to do so.
Trump could win the 2024 election overall by beating Harris in the Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and flipping Wisconsin.
Forecasters and polling aggregators suggest that Harris has a slight edge over Trump in Wisconsin, although the race is still too close to call.
Donald Trump speaks at a press conference on October 1, 2024 in Milwaukee. Polls suggest Trump is trailing Vice President Kamala Harris in The Badger State. Donald Trump speaks at a press conference on October 1, 2024 in Milwaukee. Polls suggest Trump is trailing Vice President Kamala Harris in The Badger State. Jim Vondruska/Getty Images
A recent Marquette Law School poll showed Harris ahead with a 4-point lead over Trump by (52 to 48) among registered and likely voters in a head-to-head matchup.
In a full presidential candidate ballot that included independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (3 percent), Harris had a 5-point lead over Trump among likely voters (49 percent to 44).
The Marquette Law School Poll survey was conducted between September 18 to 26 among 882 registered voters and 798 likely voters. The margin of error for both results is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaign teams for comment via email.
An ActiVote poll of 400 likely voters also showed Harris as having a 4-point lead over Trump in Wisconsin (52 percent to 48).
The poll was conducted August 29 to September 29, with the results having a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
A Trafalgar group survey of 1,097 likely Wisconsin voters, carried out between September 28-30, showed Trump with a 1-point lead over Harris in the state (47 percent to 46). The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
Elsewhere, a New York Times/Siena College survey said Harris leads Trump in Wisconsin by 49 percent to 47.
The poll surveyed 680 registered voters in Wisconsin between September 21-30, with the margin of error around 4 percentage points.
The polling average from aggregator 538, formerly FiveThirtyEight, said Harris has a 1.6-point lead over Trump (48.4 percent to 46.8) in Wisconsin as of October 5.
RealClearPolitics’ polling average gives Harris a narrower lead of 0.8 points (49 percent to 48.2).
The forecast model from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill says Harris has a 53 percent chance of winning Wisconsin in November.
President Joe Biden won all three of the blue-wall battlegrounds during his 2020 election victory, beating Trump in Wisconsin by 0.6 points.
Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Michigan in 2016 by 0.7 points—the first time the state had voted for a Republican candidate since 1984.
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