Donald Trump’s Chances of Winning Arizona, New Polls Show
October 1, 2024
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Recent polls indicate a neck-and-neck race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona for the 2024 presidential election, with Trump holding a slight edge in most surveys.
The latest data suggests Arizona remains a key battleground state, with immigration emerging as a core issue for voters. With 11 Electoral College votes, The Grand Canyon State is crucial for both candidates in their quest to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
The most recent poll, conducted by AtlasIntel from September 20 to September 25, gives Trump a 1-point lead over Harris, 50 percentage points to 49 percentage points. The survey sampled 946 likely voters and carries a margin of error of 3 points.
Newsweek contacted Harris and Trump’s campaigns via email on Monday for comment.
Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump speaks at the U.S.-Mexico border on August 22, south of Sierra Vista, Arizona. Trump is leading in the state by just over 1 percentage point, according to… Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump speaks at the U.S.-Mexico border on August 22, south of Sierra Vista, Arizona. Trump is leading in the state by just over 1 percentage point, according to new polls. (Photo by Rebecca Noble/Getty Images)
A poll conducted during the same time period by Morning Consult for Bloomberg News shows contrasting results. Among 926 likely voters, Harris leads with 50 percent support compared to 47 percent for Trump, a 3-point advantage for the vice president. When expanding the sample to 977 registered voters, Harris maintains a lead, with 49 percent versus 46 percent for Trump.
Fox News sponsored a poll conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research from September 20 to September 24. Among 764 likely voters, Trump led Harris by 3 points, 51 percent to 48 percent. In a larger sample of 1,021 registered voters, Trump’s lead decreased slightly to 2 points, 50 percent to 48 percent.
A recent poll from USA Today/Suffolk University, performed from September 21 to September 24, shows Trump with his biggest lead yet in Arizona. Out of 500 voters polled statewide, Trump leads 48 percent to 42 percent, a 6-point advantage. The poll has a 4.4-percent margin of error.
The FiveThirtyEight polling average, which aggregates multiple surveys and accounts for factors like recency, sample size, methodology and house effects, gives Trump a slim 1.1-point lead in Arizona as of September 30. Its model shows Trump with 47.9 percent compared to 46.8 percent for Harris.
According to the USA Today/Suffolk University poll, 21 percent of respondents cited immigration as their core voting issue. The Fox News poll released on September 26 found that 56 percent of respondents trust Trump to do a better job on border security, compared to 41 percent who feel Harris is stronger on the issue.
The importance of immigration in Arizona was underscored by Harris’ campaign visit to the U.S.-Mexico border on September 27, the same day the USA Today/Suffolk University poll was released. Harris’ primary immigration policy calls for reviving the bipartisan border bill that was blocked by Senate Republicans this year. The Hispanic vote could play a critical role in determining the outcome in Arizona, as the poll shows Harris leading the voting bloc with 47 percent support, with Trump trailing at 35 percent. There are about 1.3 million Hispanic registered voters in Arizona, representing around a quarter of the state’s total.
The presidential race in Arizona contrasts sharply with the state’s Senate race. According to the Fox News poll published on September 26, Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego holds a comfortable lead over Republican candidate Kari Lake. Gallego is polling at 55 percent among likely voters and 56 percent among registered voters, while Lake is at 42 percent for both.
The Fox News poll also shows a significant number of voters planning to split their ticket. Independents are 16 points more likely to back Gallego but not Harris and Republicans are 10 points more likely to follow suit. Only 3 percent of poll respondents said they’re voting for both Lake and Harris.
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