U.S. President Donald Trump’s succession plan could be under threat as candidates potentially step into the ring to become the Republican presidential nominee in 2028.
Trump has previously floated Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as two potential successors for when he leaves office, but now other candidates might be expressing an interest in the role, and divisions in the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement mean it may be difficult for Trump to rally his supporters around whoever he favors.
Newsweek has reached out to the White House by email for comment.
Why It Matters
Because of the 22nd Amendment in the U.S. Constitution, which was added in 1951, presidents can only serve two terms in the White House. Therefore, Trump will need to pass the baton to another Republican candidate when voters head to the polls for the 2028 presidential election.
This means Trump is likely to attempt to cement his influence on U.S. politics by choosing a successor, and whoever follows him will be responsible for guiding the Republican Party through future elections and continuing MAGA policies and the president’s legacy.
What To Know
Vance and Rubio are likely contenders to assume the role, according to betting odds published on prediction platform Polymarket. At the time of writing, Vance has a 56 percent chance of becoming the Republican nominee in 2028, while Rubio is a distant second, with an 8 percent chance.
But other candidates may enter the field. Georgia Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene’s odds have increased from 2.7 percent in August to 4 percent in November, according to Polymarket. However, she has dismissed rumors she is eyeing up the role, previously telling Newsweek her only commitment was “serving the best district in the nation, Georgia’s 14th.”
Meanwhile, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who ran against Trump in the 2016 GOP primary, has spoken out against former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, a Vance ally, in recent weeks, criticizing him over his views, including his opposition to U.S. involvement in foreign wars. He has also made speeches at Republican Party events, sparking speculation that he could run in 2028. Newsweek has reached out to Cruz to comment on this story.
The MAGA movement is divided on a range of issues, from Trump’s economic policies to his handling of documents connected to the late convicted sex offender, Jeffrey Epstein. MAGA is also fractured on the extent to which America should intervene in Israel and whether it was appropriate for Carlson to recently interview far-right figure Nick Fuentes in October. Trump’s recent denunciation of Greene for challenging him on policy areas including the Epstein files may also stoke divisions in his base. This too could make it challenging for the president to direct his supporters to one individual.
But speaking to Newsweek, Calvin Jillson, a politics professor at Southern Methodist University in Texas said Vance would still likely assume the role.
He said: “The 2028 presidential race, with no incumbent in the fight, will likely draw at least a dozen contenders, maybe many more on the Democrat side. Though things could change in the coming months, Trump’s vice president, JD Vance, is a strong favorite for the Republican nomination.
“Rubio, Cruz, maybe Tucker Carlson, will wrestle him for it, but the question for Vance and Rubio is how they can stay close enough to Trump to win the nomination without staying so close that Trump’s baggage becomes theirs in the general election.”
“Only if the Trump administration founders will Cruz and Carlson become relevant. But if it happens, expect a cage match, as Trump might say, ‘like no one has ever seen before.,”
What People Are Saying
Asked which Republicans could run for office in 2028, President Donald Trump told reporters in October: “We have great people…We have JD, obviously, the vice president is great. I think [Secretary of State] Marco’s [Rubio] great. I think, I’m not sure if anybody would run against those. I think if they ever formed a group, it would be unstoppable. I really do. I believe that. I would love to do it. I have my best numbers ever.”
JD Vance told Fox News’ Sean Hannity earlier this month: “I would say that I’ve thought about what that moment might look like after the midterm elections. But I also, whenever I think about that, I try to put it out of my head and remind myself the American people elected me to do a job right now, and my job is to do it.”
What Happens Next
Candidates are unlikely to announce their presidential campaigns until after the 2026 midterm elections. Meanwhile, a number of high-profile Democratic candidates including California Governor Gavin Newsom and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have not ruled out presidential runs for their party.
