Donald Trump’s Strong Disapproval Rating Surges

Donald Trump is facing a sharp rise in disapproval ratings similar to that of November, 2018, when the Republicans lost control of the House of Representatives, according to new polling data.

Why It Matters

A shift in Trump’s numbers could influence support from Republican lawmakers, affect his ability to push through his agenda and shape the political landscape, heading into the midterm election cycle.

What To Know

According to CNN pollster Harry Enten, Trump’s disapproval rating is currently at a similar level to November 2018, when the Republicans lost the House in the midterms and the Democrats gained 41 seats. At the time, 42 percent disapproved of Trump’s job performance, according to Enten’s analysis.

Now, that number stands at 43 percent. According to Enten, that could be a bad sign for Trump, who is still more than a year away from the next round of midterm elections.

Trump began his second term with relatively strong approval ratings. Polls showed that he was more popular than ever. But in the last month, that popularity has begun to unravel as polls have shown that voters are dissatisfied with his handling of the economy.

That was amplified last week when Trump announced his new program of “Liberation Day” tariffs, which included a 10 percent baseline tariff on all imports, including those from U.S. allies and non-economically active regions, along with higher rates for countries with large trade surpluses with the U.S.

Trump’s announcement sent the markets into turmoil on Thursday, Wall Street recording its worst day since 2020, when COVID-19 was in full swing. Meanwhile, by market close on Monday, the S&P 500 slipped 0.2 percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 349 points, or 0.9 percent.

But Trump has defended his tariffs plan, telling reporters “sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.”

He has also argued that countries will no longer will be able to abuse and take advantage of the U.S. under the new tariffs.

“Oil prices are down, interest rates are down (the slow moving Fed should cut rates!), food prices are down, there is NO INFLATION, and the long time abused USA is bringing in Billions of Dollars a week from the abusing countries on Tariffs that are already in place,” Trump said on Truth Social.

But economists remain unconvinced that the U.S. won’t see any negative impact. CNBC host and market analyst Jim Cramer on Saturday warned of a repeat of the devastating “Black Monday” collapse of October 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw its worse single-day fall and plummeted 22.6 percent.

University of Southern California professor Jonathan Aronson also warned that states including California and Texas will likely see reduced imports and therefore higher prices because of the tariffs.

“In 2024, California was the largest importer of goods—$509 billion, close to 30 percent from China,” he told Newsweek. Texas was second with $384 billion of imports. The tariffs will likely cut down imports and raise prices in both states.”

There are also fears that the tariffs could cause inflation and possibly ignite a recession.

Former Federal Reserve Governor, Frederic Mishkin, told Newsweek last week: “If Trump puts in these kind of tariffs and we go into a trade war, the likelihood of a recession is going to be very high.”

He added that the tariffs would, in effect, amount to a “huge tax increase,” and contribute to a period of stagflation—slow economic growth, coupled with high unemployment and accelerating inflation.

On Monday, Goldman Sachs raised its odds of a recession in 2025 to 35 percent, up from 20 percent previously. That is the company’s highest recession probability since the regional banking crisis two years ago. JP Morgan now says the chances of a recession this year stand at 40 percent, both business sentiment and consumer confidence having slumped in recent weeks.

According to a recent Fox News poll, an overwhelming 71 percent said they believe the United States economy will go into a recession this year, while just 26 percent disagreed. The poll had a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.

A poll conducted by Marquette University Law School between March 17 and March 27 among 1,021 adults also showed that 58 percent of adults think tariffs hurt the U.S. economy. The same amount think Trump’s policies will increase inflation. At the same time, polls have shown Trump’s approval rating declining.

Amid Trump’s declining popularity, resistance toward Trump is growing, according to Enten, with searches online for “protest” up 1,200 percent since a year ago. That is exceeding the levels of searches for “protest” seen in January 2017, when thousands of people took to the streets in the aftermath of Trump’s victory over Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.

That same year, the Democrats performed on average 18 points better than Clinton in special elections, Enten’s analysis shows—momentum that helped Democrats flip the House.

Fast forward 8 years, and Democrats are now performing 19 points better in special elections than Kamala Harris did against Trump in 2024. That comes after Susan Crawford won a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, defeating conservative former Attorney General Brad Schimel by 9 points this month.

After such results, Enten believes that resistance to Trump has now been reignited.

“If the resistance was a little bit lacking at the beginning of Trump’s second term, it is very much alive now,” he said.

That renewed resistance was visible last week when thousands of people came out to protest against Trump and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) head, Elon Musk. The protests were part of a series of nationwide demonstrations organized by a coalition of over 150 groups—including civil rights organizations, labor unions, LGBTQ+ advocates, veterans, and election activists.

On the initial day of “Hands Off” protests, organizers reported over 1,300 rallies of varying sizes nationwide. In Washington, D.C, tens of thousands gathered on the National Mall to protest policies they claim favor billionaires at the expense of ordinary Americans.

What People Are Saying

Harry Enten said: “The Democratic protest, the idea of protesting Donald Trump, if the resistance was a little bit lacking at the beginning of Trump’s second term, it is very much alive now. The protests are out there, and the interest in protesting Donald Trump is definitely there now.”

What Happens Next

In 2026, Americans will head to the polls to elect new senators and representatives. The Democrats have vowed to flip both chambers, which are currently held by the Republicans.

Trump’s approval rating will likely fluctuate in the coming weeks, depending on the outcome of key events, including critical negotiations on the Russia-Ukraine war and the growing tariff battles.