Electoral College Map Projector Flips Two States to Kamala Harris
October 31, 2024
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An election forecaster’s Electoral College map, which does not list any state as a toss-up, has moved a second key swing state this week to lean toward Vice President Kamala Harris.
RealClearPolitics’ No Toss-Up map—which gives every state a definitive Republican or Democratic lean, even if they are neck and neck—moved Wisconsin from leaning Donald Trump to leaning Harris on Wednesday. The same map shifted the battleground state of Michigan from lean GOP to lean Democratic on Tuesday.
The no-toss-up map allocates states, or more specifically each state’s Electoral College votes, to a candidate based on average polling, regardless of the gap.
After Michigan and Wisconsin and their combined 25 Electoral College votes went to lean Harris, the “no toss-up” map gives Trump 287 electoral votes to Harris’ 251. Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaign teams for comment via email.
Harris’ clearest path to victory in November is to win the three swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, barring any shock results elsewhere. Trump could reach 270 Electoral College votes by defeating Harris in Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, and flipping either Wisconsin or Michigan.
Wisconsin previously went from “lean Democrat” to “lean Republican” on October 17. Michigan moved to a lean Republican on October 9 before flipping back on Tuesday.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally on October 30, 2024 in Madison, Wisconsin. RealClearPolitics’ No Toss-Up map now has Wisconsin and Michigan leaning Harris. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally on October 30, 2024 in Madison, Wisconsin. RealClearPolitics’ No Toss-Up map now has Wisconsin and Michigan leaning Harris. Scott Olson/Getty Images
The fellow battleground state of Nevada switched from “lean Democrat” to “lean Republican” on RealClearPolitics’ No Toss-Up map on October 11, with Pennsylvania going lean GOP on September 29.
The five other main swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania—as well as Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, are also listed as toss-ups.
When not factoring in the toss-up states, Trump is currently ahead with 219 Electoral College votes against Harris’ 211, with 108 electoral votes up for grabs.
RealClearPolitics’ polling averages have Harris ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan, by 0.2 points and 0.4 points respectively.
The former president is leading on average in Arizona by 2.5 points, Georgia (2.4 points), Nevada (0.5), North Carolina (1), and Pennsylvania (0.8).
A CNN/SSRS poll of 736 likely voters in Wisconsin showed Harris with a 6-point lead over Trump (51 percent to 45). The survey was conducted October 23 to 28 and the results have a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points. The poll gave Harris a 5-point lead in Michigan (48 percent to 43), with a margin of error of 4.7 points.
An On Point/Red Eagle Politics/SoCal Strategies Wisconsin poll of 600 likely voters had Harris and Trump tied at 49 percent. The survey was carried out on October 28 and 29 with the margin of error being plus or minus 4 percentage points.
An Emerson College Polling/RealClearWorld survey of Michigan voters found 49 percent supported Trump, while 48 percent backed Harris.
The Michigan survey was conducted from October 25 to 27, among 1,000 likely voters. The results have a margin of error of 3 percentage points either way.
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