England vs. Switzerland Pick: Best Bet for Euro 2024 Quarterfinal

Following two matches that needed more than 90 minutes to be settled on Friday, the Euro 2024 quarterfinals conclude on Saturday with England vs. Switzerland at noon ET, followed by Netherlands vs. Turkey at 3 p.m.

England are heavily favored on Saturday despite their underwhelming performances in this tournament to date, including a round of 16 battle with Slovakia in which England were nearly shut out.

But Gareth Southgate’s team is not only still alive, it’s actually the favorite to win Euro 2024.

Switzerland reached the quarterfinals by finishing second in Group A behind Germany, then dispatching Italy in the round of 16.

England vs. Switzerland Moneyline Odds

BetMGM FanDuel DraftKings ESPN BET bet365
England +120 +125 +125 +120 +120
Switzerland +280 +290 +290 +260 +300
Draw +190 +190 +195 +205 +190

England vs. Switzerland Betting Analysis

England have struggled to create opportunities in this tournament, and as a result, the Three Lions have just four goals in 390 minutes of action.

The offensive output is even less impressive considering that two of those four goals came inside the same frantic, five-minute period against Slovakia last weekend.

Now, the quarterfinals bring about England’s toughest opponent yet. The Swiss are flying under the radar — especially compared to the likes of England and France — but they’re objectively better than Serbia, Denmark, Slovenia and Slovakia.

England’s back line has rightly been praised for keeping this team alive, (this team has allowed only two goals in four games), but the Swiss defense has been solid as well, if not dominant. With just three goals allowed in four games — including a 1-1 draw against Germany and a 2-0 win over Italy — Switzerland have been just as impressive defensively.

Switzerland have given up 4.3 xGA (expected goals allowed) in four matches, while England have surrendered 3.4 xGA.

Switzerland are playing well enough to keep this low-scoring and close until the final minutes, and I like the side playing with house money to find the late game-winner to send England home.

England vs. Switzerland Prediction, Best Bets

Let’s start with the total. Just one of England’s four games in this tournament has gone over two goals scored (the 2-1 win over Slovakia). And that game’s total only reached three goals in extra time, so Under 2.5 would have cashed.

Switzerland have also only played in one game at Euro 2024 that went over 2.5: their 3-1 win over Hungary in their first match of this competition. Unfortunately, there’s not much value in Under 2.5 in this one, because sportsbooks price it as short as -210 (BetMGM). Another sign we shouldn’t be surprised if this one ends up 1-0 or even 0-0 is the fact that Both Teams to Score — No is -155 (also at BetMGM).

There are still other ways to bank on this game being low-scoring, though, starting with Under 1.5 (+140 at BetMGM).

Ultimately, if you’re skeptical of England — and bullish on Switzerland being the team to send them home — the question is whether to take Switzerland on the moneyline (as long as +300 at bet365), Switzerland (Draw No Bet) (+150 at BetMGM) or Double Chance — Switzerland or Draw (-163 at bet365).

Yet another option is Switzerland to advance (+138 at FanDuel).

Prediction: Switzerland 1, England 0

Best Bet: Switzerland to advance (+138)

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