European Allies Mull $90B Contingency for Ukraine If Trump Peace Plan Fails

The European Union’s commissioner for defense has proposed ramping up military support for Ukraine, should President Donald Trump’s peace plan fall through.

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Andrius Kubilius suggested that the EU can significantly strengthen military support for Ukraine by procuring weapons directly from Ukrainian manufacturers.

Why It Matters

Trump is faltering in his efforts to broker peace talks to end the conflict, with Russia and Ukraine struggling to reach mutually acceptable terms. The president suggested in an NBC Meet the Press interview that aired Sunday that it may not be possible for Washington to broker an end to the conflict.

What To Know

The EU could greatly increase its military support to Ukraine if Putin isn’t convinced by Trump’s efforts to make peace, Kubilius said Sunday.

The commissioner for defense said that the EU “would effectively double the volume of weapons Ukraine receives” if it were to invest in domestic weapons production.

“Our support’s real value would rise to €80 billion [$90.6 billion],” Kubilius added.

Denmark spearheaded the so-called “Danish model” of arms procurement for Ukraine in September 2024, when it announced it would invest 4.2 billion Danish kroner ($630 million) in the Ukrainian defense industry.

Just last month, the Danish government pledged to invest 2 billion Danish kroner ($290 million) in Ukraine’s defense industry, citing Kyiv’s growing capacity to produce and supply equipment for its fight for freedom.

The Danish government said that hopefully “other countries will follow our example to an even greater extent.”

Kubilius urged EU members to use the bloc’s new Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative—a multibillion loan instrument—to assist Ukraine in the conflict started by Russia in February 2022. It helps countries invest in key areas such as missile defense, drones, and cybersecurity.

European and Ukrainian officials fear Trump is close to abandoning his efforts to put an end to the war, the U.K. newspaper Financial Times reported last week, citing people briefed on the discussions.

What People Are Saying

Andrius Kubilius, the European Union‘s commissioner for defense, said on X on Sunday: “If Putin isn’t convinced by Trump to make peace, we could bring forward more convincing arguments for peace very quickly—by greatly increasing our military support to Ukraine.

“Until now, the EU & U.S. provided around €40B a year of military aid to Ukraine. But we can spend that same amount procuring modern weapons in Ukraine—which would cost about half as much as those made in the EU or US.

“This would effectively double the volume of weapons Ukraine receives for the same €40B. Our support’s real value would rise to €80B.

“New #SAFE loans, backed by the EU, provide Member States exactly this possibility: to use the loans for scaling up military support to Ukraine. That’s how the formula “Peace through strength” can truly work in practice. #SAFE loans mean strength for Ukraine!”

U.S. President Donald Trump told NBC’s Meet the Press in an interview with host Kristen Welker that aired Sunday: “I do believe we’re closer with one party. And maybe not as close with the other, but we’ll have to see. Five thousand soldiers a week, on average, are dying. They’re not American soldiers. But I want to solve the problem.

“There’s tremendous hatred. Just so you understand, Kristen, we’re talking tremendous hatred between these two men [Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky] and between, you know, some of the soldiers, frankly, between the generals; they’ve been fighting hard for three years. I think we have a very good chance of doing it.”