Final Polls Reveal Trump Faces Huge Gender Gap as Women Flock to Harris

In the final stretch of the election, analysis by Newsweek indicates a significant gender divide, with women voters showing a strong preference for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump, while men show a strong preference for Trump.

Newsweek looked at the national polls since October 28 that provide a breakdown of voting intention based on gender and found that on average, women break for Harris by 8 points, while men break for Trump by 10 points. That amounts to an average gender gap of 9 points.

According to Newsweek’s analysis, polls show that on average, Harris has the support of 52 percent of female voters and 43 percent of male voters. Meanwhile, 53 percent of male voters back Trump compared to 44 percent of female voters.

The gender gap is not a new phenomenon. Women have been more likely to support the Democrats and men have been more likely to support the Republicans since the 1980s, and this political divide has only grown over time. But this year, the divide could have significant implications for the election result due to how close the race currently stands.

With only a few days to go until the election, polls are closer than ever, with FiveThirtyEight’s tracker showing Kamala Harris leading by 1 point, while every swing state is within a 2 point margin. Meanwhile, the Cook Political Report released it final projections on Friday, which revealed the election is too close to call.

Carrie Baker, a Professor of Women, Gender and Sexuality at Smith College in Massachusetts told Newsweek: “Whichever way this election goes, gender will be a critical factor in determining the outcome.”

Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.

A recent poll by J.L. Partners, conduced between October 26 and 29, showed that male voters were 22 points more likely than women to support the former president. Meanwhile, women broke for Harris by 14 points. That amounts to an average gender gap of 18 points.

Other polls have also shown Trump leading Harris by a large margin among men. For example, a poll conducted by Quantus Insights between October 27 and 30 showed that Trump was ahead of Harris by 13 points among men, and Harris led him by 11 points among women. That amounts to an average gender gap of 12 points.

However, some polls have shown a much smaller gender gap. An AtlasIntel poll conducted between October 25 and 29 found that men broke for Trump by just 4 points, while he and Harris were tied among women on 49 percent each. Meanwhile, a SoCal Strategies poll conducted between October 30 and 31 found that men broke for Trump by just 5 points, while women broke for Harris by only 3 points.

But while the true nature of the gender gap in not clear from the polls, surveys from this year’s election have indicated that the gender gap may be particularly large among young voters.

An average of three recent New York Times/Siena College polls, conducted from September to October, shows Trump leading Harris among young men by 21 points (58 percent to 37 percent), while Harris has a 39-point advantage among young women (67 percent to 28 percent). A Harvard Kennedy School poll of 18-to-29-year-olds in September also found a 10-point gender gap, with Trump receiving 38 percent support from young men compared to 28 percent from young women, while Harris’ support stood at 49 percent among men and 59 percent among women.

Additionally, a poll by the Alliance for Black Equality conducted from October 15-19 revealed that 35 percent of Gen Z Black men support Trump—the highest among Black voters surveyed. The poll, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent, included nearly 1,500 respondents.

“The gender gap in voting, which emerged in 1980 and has grown steadily over the years, is likely to be greater than ever this year, especially among young people. MAGA Republicans have targeted young men, tailoring their messages around hypermasculinity and grievance.” Baker told Newsweek.

Elisabeth Clemens, a Professor of Sociology at the University of Chicago, explained that the use of populist rhetoric by the right is critical to understanding what is driving the gender gap.

“From Hannah Arendt to Arlie Hochschild scholars have recognized that populism speaks to those who are experiencing or anticipating status loss, whether that takes the form of the erosion of racial or gender privilege or the loss of a job or community standing. In response, the Trump campaign promises a restoration of male privilege and traditional family roles; the Democrats focus on the creation of well-paying manufacturing jobs and home ownership,” she told Newsweek.

A 2020 survey by the Pew Research Center found that 23 percent of men—and 33 percent of men who backed Trump—believed the advancement of women has come at their expense.

Financially, young women are gaining independence at higher rates than in the 1980s, with many out-earning young men and living on their own. Pew’s research also shows 39 percent of men agree that men today are struggling more than women to secure well-paying jobs—a sentiment particularly prevalent among young Republican men.

And according to Blueprint, these men often feel pessimistic and disillusioned about America and its political system—something Trump has capitalized on, positioning himself as the antiestablishment figure being victimized by the Washington political elite.

In this election, nowhere has this been more evident than in Trump’s use of podcasts—an untraditional form of media—to appeal to young, especially male, voters. The former president has appeared on The Joe Rogan Experience, the Shawn Ryan Show, as well as Theo Von’s podcast and Lex Fridman’s show. All four podcasts draw a largely young, male audience, and millions of viewers. Meanwhile, Harris declined to appear on the Joe Rogan Experience.

For Jackson Katz, the cofounder of the Young Men’s Research Initiative, this was a disappointing move from her campaign.

“I’ve been hoping that she was going to go on Joe Rogan Experience, because I think that would have been a very powerful statement to young men,” he told Newsweek.

But there is still hope for Harris’ campaign. Early voting data shows the Democrats are ahead by 2 points. However, it is unclear what this means for the election since the data reveals only whether voters are registered with a party, not who they are voting for. Nonetheless, the data suggests the lead for the Democrats is party driven by women coming out in force to vote for Harris, with 54 percent of all early voters identifying as female, while 43 percent are men. If this trend persists, Harris could be in for a win, according to Katz.

“I think part of the challenge in the Trump campaign has been to try to motivate more young men to come out than normally do come out, because they know they’re going to lose really badly among women,” he said.

He added that young men could even sway the election toward Harris if they “see through” Trump.

“If enough young men can see through the Trump campaign’s efforts to exploit their vulnerability to cartoonish masculinity appeals, it could make the difference,” he said.